RNZ Pacific's correspondent in Tonga says the country should find out who their leader is later this week.
Tongans went to the polls 11 days ago and elected an all-male parliament, with nine new faces coming in via the 17 People's Representative seats, and three among the nobles.
The new noble MPs again are Lord Vaea, Lord Fohe and Prince Fotofili.
Pohiva Tu'ionetoa retained his Tongatapu 10 constituency, as one of only five current Cabinet ministers returned.
Secretive negotiations have been going on since the poll.
Kalafi Moala said the race has come down to two candidates - caretaker prime minister Pohiva Tu'i'onetoa and the education minister, Siaosi Sovaleni.
"There are 11 supporters from the People's Representatives for Sovaleni, there are five for Tu'i'onetoa, and as of this morning, we hear that Tu'i'onetona's group, the five of them, are approaching the nobles to get their support.
And if they get the support of the nobles you are looking at a winning majority from that," he said.
Kalafi Moala said the confirmation of prime minister will be done after a special vote in parliament which could be later this week.