China denounces Taiwan president’s Pacific tour as he stops off in Hawaii and Guam

By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic and East Asia correspondent Kathleen Calderwood, ABC

On Saturday, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te landed in Hawaii, bowed his head, and was garlanded with flowers.

It was his first stop in what will be an almost week-long sweep through the region, which will also take the president to the handful of Pacific nations that retain diplomatic ties with Taipei.

The trip has already drawn angry denunciations from China, which objects furiously to Taiwanese leaders putting their feet on US soil, and which has been working assiduously to strip Taiwan of its remaining diplomatic "allies".

Lai struck an optimistic tone on departure, saying he wanted to "expand our cooperation with our allies" and "let the world see Taiwan not just as a model of democracy, but a vital power in promoting the world's peace and stability".

But the visit comes as Taiwan struggles to halt Beijing's concerted and increasingly successful campaign to peel off Taipei's remaining international partners.

Some officials in Taiwan are also worried Beijing might respond to this visit by launching military exercises around the island, which would send fresh ripples of anxiety through the region.

So why is Lai making this trip, and where is he going?

Why has it drawn such a forceful response across the strait?

And what are the chances of Taiwan holding on to its remaining Pacific friends?

Where is the president going?

After his visit to Hawaii, Lai will make flying visits to the Republic of Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, with a brief stopover in the US territory of Guam along the way.

Tuvalu, RMI and Palau might all be small nations, but they have outsised diplomatic importance for Taiwan: they're part of the rapidly dwindling band of countries that recognise Taipei, rather than Beijing.

China has been intent on picking off these allies, and as its wealth and power swells, it has enjoyed increasing success - 10 countries have switched allegiance over the last decade, leaving Taiwan with only a dozen official diplomatic partners.

Pacific nations have been part of this mass defection, with Kiribati and Solomon Islands making the switch in 2019, and Nauru joining them in January this year - just two days after Lai won victory at the polls.

Mark Harrison from the University of Tasmania says Taiwanese presidents have always made regular visits to diplomatic allies in Latin America and the Pacific, and that trips are a critical part of its foreign policy.

"Taipei is very conscious that Beijing is always looking for opportunities to steal its allies, so this is a necessary activity for Taiwan to do what it can to forestall that possibility," he tells the ABC.

Alexander Huang, the director of international affairs for Taiwan's main opposition party the Kuomintang, agrees this trip is "business as usual".

"It's also been a practice for years that the ministry of foreign affairs will try to arrange such a visit that includes the US," he says.

Visited @bishopmuseum,@Hawaii_EMA, & the USS Arizona Memorial today, engaging with friends from the #US & our overseas Taiwanese communities. While celebrating our shared Austronesian heritage, we reaffirm #Taiwan’s dedication to peace & global friendship. pic.twitter.com/7q9axkBbaZ

— 賴清德Lai Ching-te (@ChingteLai) December 1, 2024

Maintaining these relationships gives Taiwan a measure of legitimacy on the international stage, which makes it less vulnerable and isolated in the face of coercion from the mainland.

"If Taiwan had no diplomatic allies at all, then the president wouldn't really be able to travel anywhere at all," Dr Harrison says.

"The relationships do matter. Taiwan needs countries which recognise it."

Graeme Smith from the Australian National University calls the trip an "exercise in sandbagging" as the president tries to ensure no other Pacific nations join Nauru at the exit gate.

-ABC

What are the chances these countries stick with Taiwan?

It's difficult to say.

While Taiwanese officials, local media and Lai have struck a determinedly buoyant tone about the visit, there's no doubt that Taipei has been shaken and demoralised by the spate of diplomatic defections over the past decade.

Dr Smith says there's also cynicism among some in Taiwan's elite - as well in the general public - about its remaining partners, and a fear that it's "only a matter of time before they leave" in the face of hefty inducements and constant pressure from Beijing.

"There is sort of a jilted-lover syndrome baked into Taiwan's friendship with these countries, because there is a degree of fatalism that Taiwan simply can't out-spend China," he tells the ABC.

"The public doesn't have a great deal of appetite for Taiwan to spend big on its allies in order to keep them, because it's convinced they won't be able to keep them."

That said, even if the long-term outlook is bleak for Taiwan, its deep ties with both leaders and everyday people in its remaining Pacific allies might allow it to hold on there for quite some time yet.

While one MP in Tuvalu mused about making the "switch" ahead of elections early this year, the country's President Feleti Teo has since declared he has no intention of ditching Taiwan.

In Palau, the stridently pro-Taiwan President Saurangel Whipps has also just won re-election.

"The countries which are with them may yet stay for a while … the Marshall Islands I'm not so sure, but definitely Tuvalu and Palau," Dr Smith says.

How do Australia and the United States see the contest?

Some analysts believe the intensifying strategic competition between China and the West across the Pacific may also help Taiwan retain its remaining allies - although exactly how this plays out is difficult to predict.

In years gone past, many countries that are friendly to Taiwan - like the US, Japan and Australia - might have previously simply given an unhappy shrug when countries decided to ditch Taipei for Beijing.

After all, all three countries listed above maintain only "informal" ties with Taipei because they recognise Beijing instead, which makes it hard for them to criticise Pacific nations for switching across.

They might also have felt that Pacific countries making the switch didn't really threaten their vital interests in any way.

But Mark Harrison from the University of Tasmania says the 2019 decision by Solomon Islands to ditch Taipei for Beijing was a "key moment" for the West, because Honiara followed that up by embracing much closer strategic ties with China - including by signing a deeply controversial security and policing agreements.

"The switch was just the first step to opening the door to much deeper activities by China in Solomon Islands," he says.

That might mean that countries like the US and Australia might be more willing to work quietly behind the scenes to try to discourage Tuvalu, Palau and the Republic of Marshall Islands from doing the same.

"I think Taipei has come to realise that it has more strength maybe than it might have realised perhaps in years gone by," Dr Harrison says.

"That's because other countries have come to understand that Taiwan maintaining these alliances does keep Beijing out of some of these countries in ways that are strategically advantageous."

Australian diplomats in Taiwan will certainly be watching Mr Lai's highly anticipated trip closely.

And there's also a feeling among some that Taiwan has more capital to gain by building on its relationships with Pacific countries like Fiji and Papua New Guinea, where despite not having official ties, they do have trade offices and representatives on the ground.

How has China reacted to the trip?

The Chinese Communist Party regards Taiwan as an inviolable part of its territory.

So, unsurprisingly, Beijing has responded angrily to the visit, with officials from multiple arms of the Chinese government stridently denouncing it.

China has criticised Taiwan's three Pacific allies hosting the president, saying they should "see clearly the trend of history at an early date, and make the right decision that truly serves their fundamental and long-term interests".

But it's much angrier about Lai's "transits" in Hawaii and Guam, because it sees them as a clear breach of Washington's commitments not to afford any diplomatic status to Taipei when it made its own switch of recognition to Beijing back in 1979.

On Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the US had to handle the Taiwan issue "with utmost caution, clearly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting China's peaceful reunification" in order to preserve peace.

Longstanding American foreign policy does not support Taiwan independence, although the US is committed to providing the island with the resources it needs to defend itself from an attack from China under its Taiwan Relations Act.

It's not clear whether Mr Lai will meet with any members of the Biden administration or the incoming Trump administration during his transits.

"For the incoming administration I don't think anyone before their confirmation would do this risky thing," Dr Huang says.

But Mark Harrison says the fact the president is stopping in the US at all this week is worth noting.

He says while previous presidents have regularly made stopovers in the US during trips to Latin America - including in the mainland US - they haven't typically done so for Pacific tours.

That's partly because of geography.

While a US "stopover" on the way to Latin America looks plausible, it's harder to describe Hawaii as a "stop over" to the Marshall Islands or any of Taiwan's other allies, given it's thousands of kilometres to the west.

"It's a long way around, to get to some of those Pacific countries via Hawaii," he tells the ABC.

Dr Huang says this trip is actually quite late by normal standards (Mr Lai was inaugurated in May) but he expects that is because the government was advised to wait until after the US election.

"Donald Trump may not want to support [a visit by Lai Ching-te] so it might be a case of do it when you can," he told the ABC.

He added that it's also important to demonstrate to the Taiwanese public that the island still has the support of the US, even though there's a lot of uncertainty attached to the change of administration in January.

"I think everybody knows - even the [Pacific] diplomatic allies that are receiving President Lai - they understand the focal point will be the US transit not the state visits," Dr Huang said.

"But the publicity is the key, making phone calls from Hawaii to Washington, these are the tricks [to show US support] for domestic consumption."

Dr Harrison says the US is sending a signal that it wants to confer some "legitimacy" to the visit and Taiwan's diplomatic ties across the Pacific.

"This is an interesting development," he says.

"Beijing will be exercised about it because it just signals the US commitment to Taiwan, and the US being willing to stretch the limits of its Taiwan policy architecture and its One China policy … to confer more legitimacy upon Taiwan as a stakeholder in the international system."

Will China hold more military exercises near Taiwan?

It's plausible, although once again, it's hard to be certain.

Taiwanese officials told Reuters last week that they believed Beijing could well respond with military drills, even if they aren't on the same scale as those launched earlier this year.

China's military certainly hasn't been intent on turning down the temperature in its rhetoric since this trip came to light.

Its ministry of defence spokesperson said on Thursday last week that the PLA would "resolutely smash any 'Taiwan independence' separatist attempts and thwart any foreign interference".

Dr Harrison says it "wouldn't be a surprise at all" to see Beijing signalling its anger by kicking off yet another round of military exercises near the island.

"It's part of Beijing's continual escalation of its military threat to Taiwan," he tells the ABC.

"It's a very serious situation."

But Graeme Smith from the Australian National University says the global uncertainty about Donald Trump's return to the White House might just temper China's response.

"China is also coming to grips with the world with a Trump presidency," he says.

"So perhaps they'll be avoiding provocative actions as much as Taiwan might be."