Transcript
Walter Zweifel: The Tahoeraa's decline began in 2014 when Gaston Flosse lost the presidency because of a corruption conviction. His disqualification from holding office in itself had no big impact on the assembly because the party held two thirds of all seats. But rifts within the party worsened and after falling out with Flosse, a long list of members quit the party, eventually creating a rival anti-independence party, the Tapura Huiraatira. The anti-independence politicians who weren't loyal to Flosse all shifted their support to the Tapura led by Edouard Fritch.
Sally Round: The Tapura has a majority. Is it likely to keep it?
WZ: It has every chance to be able to do so because of the electoral system. With the bonus system in place, the party winning most votes automatically gets 19 of the 57 seats. The 38 remaining seats are then shared out in proportion to the parties' relative strength. The Tapura is not only made up of disgruntled or expelled Tahoeraa members but also the politicians of the A Tia Porinetia Party which merged with the Tapura.
SR: What are the chances of a Tahoeraa comeback?
WZ: Returning to run the government is a tall order and much hinges on whether Flosse will be allowed to stand. He has been banned from office because of two convictions, with him saying the two bans are being served at the same time. However, another ruling says the bans are to be served consecutively. This is being tested right now and if Flosse cannot stand in April, the 86-year-old politician may have to wait for another five years.
SR: What about the pro-independence Union For Democracy?
WZ: Judging by the support the party's candidates had in last year's French parliamentary election, it is hardly strong enough to become the biggest party which is necessary to have a majority.
SR: Is there a chance there could be a dramatic change as seen in France?
WZ: The Emmanuel Macron-led En Marche phenomenon has not been a fit for French Polynesia so far. The local parties are quite entrenched and in their way traditional. In the French presidential campaign they were backing established politicians and not Mr Macron. In the Tahoeraa's case, it backed Marine Le Pen, which unsettled the party's number 2 Marcel Tuihani who has split from Flosse to have his own party.
SR: Can such new parties do well?
WZ: Traditionally, they struggle and risk being eliminated in the first round because they need 12.5 percent of the vote to progress to the second round.
SR: What are the main issues?
WZ: The economy keeps being the main concern. Unemployment has cast a shadow over much of society but for about a decade no party has managed to bring about a sustained turnaround.
