"The countries which are close neighbours with a shared history and culture appear to be a ruthless enemy, and the nations which are so far away with different historical backgrounds appear to be a real friend," - Ukraine Ambassador designate Kateryna Zelenko
Whether the global ripples from Russia's invasion of Ukraine crash onto New Zealand's shores may depend largely on the actions of China - and what is done in response.
New Zealand has followed other countries in imposing sanctions against Russian individuals, institutions, and assets, and states linked to it could soon follow.
China is close to Russia both geographically and diplomatically. Its position on the war is not yet clear, but as New Zealand's largest trading partner any sanctions against it could mean serious economic repercussions.
Experts doubt China will take sides, but multilateralism and being heard on the global stage are important to New Zealand - and if China does step in, choices will have to be made.
Photo: 123RF
New Zealand's actions against Russia include a travel ban for hundreds of individuals, sanctions on President Vladimir Putin and his security council of 12, one bank, and 18 other entities.
It means assets cannot be moved here, and prevents New Zealand's financial system being used to circumvent the sanctions of other countries, but the move marks a significant departure from the tradition of applying UN sanctions only.
The legislation, passed under urgency last week, marks a significant departure from a tradition of only applying sanctions in line with the UN.
The list of sanctions was published on Friday, with Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta promising more to come.
The National Party supported the legislation, with MP Gerry Brownlee saying it was a difficult situation for the entire world. Indeed, the threat is nuclear - with Putin saying Russia's weapons were on "special alert".
Read more:
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- Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Experts doubt China will take sides
- Russia's war puts NZ’s refugee policy and China strategy in sharper focus
- The Detail: How New Zealand's sanctions against Russia work
- Visas for Ukrainian NZers' families, as govt increases aid
- Russia Sanctions Bill spurs debate on wider legislation
Recent reports from the United States suggest Russia has asked Beijing for military equipment and economic support, but Chinese officials have quickly rejected the claims, calling them malicious disinformation.
China expert Jason Young notes the country has not condemned Russia's aggression, and domestically its presentation of the war is similar to that seen in Russia. On the other hand it did not support Russia at the UN either and Foreign Minister Wang Yi presents China's position as supporting the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine.
International Business Forum executive director Stephen Jacobi also can't see why China would want to help, saying it has a lot at stake in an orderly global economy.
Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson was cautious about speculating too much.
"We want the global community to remain unified in our condemnation of the illegal invasion of Ukraine and we want to make sure that we're doing all we can to come to a peaceful resolution. New Zealand will deal with the situations that are in front of us, at the moment we haven't had to consider that matter," said Robertson.
And Brownlee was largely on the same page.
"I think it actually doesn't do the New Zealand-China relationship much good by speculating on something like that. In the end, I'd be very surprised if they did take those sort of actions."
The war's outcome is still far from certain, and China's place in it even less so. An as New Zealand looks to further step away from the UN with a more generic autonomous sanctions law - one not specific to Russia's invasion - the one thing we can be sure of is change.
In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Editor Jane Patterson interrogates the ramifications for New Zealand of Russia's war against Ukraine.
Listen free to Focus on Politics on Apple Podcasts, on Spotify, on iHeart Radio or wherever you get your podcasts.
