The latest modeling suggests Auckland's Covid-19 outbreak is now less likely to hit its worse case scenario, and is on track to reach a peak by the end of November.
Data modeller Shaun Hendy says there's a strong caveat - it's not yet clear whether the move to allow Aucklanders to hit the shops will cause a big increase in case numbers.
He said how bad the outbreak gets all comes down to vaccinations.
Hendy said the cases creeping down the country was inevitable, but he's concerned about vulnerable communities.
