New Zealand’s fertility rate has fallen again to a record low for the 10th year in a row. Statistics New Zealand data shows the birth rate for women of child bearing age has fallen to 1.63 per women. A birth rate of 2.1 is needed to replace population numbers.
In raw numbers, in the year to September 1300 fewer babies were born than the year before. One of the factors driving this trend. Massey University distinguished professor in demographer Paul Spoonley joined Kathryn Ryan to discuss what’s driving the trend.
Photo: AFP
While there has been speculation of a Covid-19 baby boom due to lockdown, Prof Spoonley says evidence around the world is pointing toward a dip in birth rates.
“It’s the uncertainty around the economic future – there’s a big income shock – and it’s unclear whether you’re going to have income to support a family and do you want to bring a child into a world where Covid is still rampant?”
Prof Spoonley says the trend of lower fertility began in the 1970s with widespread uptake of the contraception pill, more education for women, and the growing presence of women in the workplace. Not only did that contribute to fewer births, women started to have babies later in life.
“The Prime Minister, having Neve when she was 37, is very typical of women in New Zealand in the 21st century. There are more births attributed to women over 40 now then there are to women aged under 20.”
He says one of the more recent factors for a lower fertility rate and later birth times is the cost of living in New Zealand, particularly housing.
“Very often double income is required to even think about entering the housing market. I think there is a much clearer set of decisions being made by couples about the cost of children versus the ability to continue to work or to gain things like housing.”
At its cheapest, raising a child in New Zealand is calculated to cost around $150,000. At the top end, it’s between $400,000 to $500,000 per child.
“You can see that the economics of living in a country like New Zealand and, in particular, metropolitan New Zealand children really become an economic position as much as anything.”
