27 Feb 2025

Analysis: Winston Peters walks a 'tricky' diplomatic line in Beijing

6:11 pm on 27 February 2025

Analysis: Foreign Minister Winston Peters walked a tricky diplomatic line in Beijing this week when suggesting that a lack of notice about China's navy ship visit to the Tasman had been a failure in the relationship.

It was tricky because while New Zealand was clearly concerned by the ship visit and the live fire exercises, it can't call out China over the visits or demand they leave, as they were not breaking any international laws.

However, Peters could - and did - remind China, in his meeting with counterpart Wang Yi, that we had a strong mature relationship, one that New Zealand feels - given the work put in over many decades - warranted a far better heads up about the live firing exercises than we got.

His expectation is that China will at least consider the request next time. Whether it does remained to be seen and there was no mention of the ship visit in most accounts in the Chinese media the following day.

Winston Peters and Chinese Vice President Han Zheng in Beijing.

Winston Peters and Chinese Vice President Han Zheng in Beijing. Photo: SUPPLIED

But, by raising it in the way Peters did, China could be under no illusion that it was of serious concern to New Zealand.

China had initially responded to Australian concerns about the live firing exercises as being over-hyped and insisted it had given warnings to airlines forced to divert.

How China reacts and communicates with New Zealand around future ship visits will be the measure of whether this diplomatic mission has been successful or not.

Calling it a failure in the relationship in a media interview after the talks was certainly strong language from Peters. However he clearly felt he was doing it in the context of good partners being able to have disagreements, a point both sides made repeatedly this week.

It was a similar stance with the tricky issue of the Cook Islands and its MOU agreements with China.

Peters resisted criticising China for having relationships with Pacific countries, instead taking the opportunity to remind China that New Zealand's status with the Cook Islands as a realm country was very different than that with other Pacific nations like Kiribati.

Winston Peters makes opening remarks at a meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng

Winston Peters makes opening remarks at a meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. Photo: RNZ/Corin Dann

Media reports in China suggest that message may have got through. Wang was quoted in the China Daily as saying "China respects New Zealand's traditional ties with Pacific Island nations, and that Beijing and Wellington can enhance communication on issues of mutual concern through consultations on South Pacific affairs".

For now, that was probably the best New Zealand could hope for from China. For some who want a much tougher line on China, particularly in Australia, this week's efforts were unlikely to be enough.

However in many ways when it comes to the great power moves in the Pacific, it was now increasingly up to New Zealand to try to control what it could. Given the resources in the Pacific, global powers like China and the US were going to be increasingly interested in this region.

That means confronting big questions in New Zealand such as whether or not to increase defence spending - and what on? Or deciding whether to join pillar two of the AUKUS alliance - or to just wait and see whether it survives under the new Trump White House.

All are big calls for New Zealanders to grapple with, but ones we are increasingly now being forced to confront.

Full coverage of Winston Peters in Beijing

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