Businesses are more upbeat about their own outlook but there are signs the economic rebound may be levelling out.
ANZ's monthly survey of businesses sentiment showed headline confidence improved to a net -32 percent, up from -34.4 in June. Photo: RNZ / DOM THOMAS
ANZ's monthly survey of businesses sentiment showed headline confidence improved to a net -32 percent, up from -34.4 in June.
When asked about the prospects for themselves, a net 9 percent expected a deterioration, a 17-point improvement from June.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the result, although positive, was below what was expected.
"We saw the preliminary data for the month in early July and that was a decent bounce from June, which was great, but the full month data for July we actually saw quite a lot of indicators slip a little bit, suggesting that the bounce out of lockdown has run its course."
Zollner believed the "slip" was driven in large part by the outbreak of Covid-19 cases in Australia over the month.
"What's happening in Australia is really quite disheartening for everybody and although China is our largest export market, Australia is also very important, particularly for out manufacturing sector.
"There was sort of a theme across the business outlook survey that the outward looking sectors of agriculture and manufacturing perhaps were a bit weaker than the inward looking sectors who had been enjoying this strong bounce out of the lockdown."
Zollner described the economy as being in a "sweet spot" at the moment, as it sat between two major economic shocks - the blow dealt by the lockdown and the impending wave of job losses when the government's wage subsidy scheme rolls off in September.
"There was the lockdown where a third of economic activity just simply couldn't happen and then the bounce out of that, but then also we've got the economic shock from the closed border and that's still coming really.
"We've seen some firm closures and some redundancies but the big fiscal stimulus, the wage subsidies, that still's largely in the pipeline."
Forward looking indicators in the business survey had increased on levels in June.
