Navigation for News Categories

New Zealand Kaikōura Earthquake

15 Nov 2016

NZ moving to 'period of more earthquakes'

10:11 am on 15 November 2016

There is a 32 percent chance of another earthquake with a magnitude of more than seven within the next month, GNS says.

Marlborough civil defence controller Richard McNamara with a map of the Ure River area. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

A landslide triggered by the November 14 earthquake covers State Highway 1 south of Kaikoura. Photo: AFP

Quake damage to SH1. Photo: AFP

The view from inside one of the blocked road tunnels on SH1 near Kaikoura. Photo: AFP

Quake damage to SH1. Photo: AFP

Emergency services officers inspect the damage caused to Rotherham Road near Waiau town. Photo: AFP

Quake damage to SH1. Photo: AFP

A damaged home in Waiau. Photo: AFP

French tourists Lucie and Louisa moments before leaving Kaikoura on the HMNZS Canterbury on Wednesday. Photo: RNZ / Max Towle

Part of the Kēkerengū fault in Marlborough. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

Damage along the Kēkerengū fault in Marlborough. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

Quake damage in Ward. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Mt Lyford resident Don McIntosh's cars were shunted around by the earthquake. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

A helicopter lowers itself to land to collect luggage of evacuees heading to the HMNZS Canterbury. Photo: RNZ / Claire Eastham-Farrelly

A helicopter ferries evacuees luggage onto the HMNZS Canterbury. Photo: RNZ / Claire Eastham-Farrelly

RNZAF's Hercules airdrops water to Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Maja Burry

The Clarence rafters. Photo: Deirdre Lusby

The Clarence rafters were evacuated by helicopter from Muzzle Station. Photo: Deirdre Lusby

The airforce helicopter flies in to Kaikoura to drop off supplies and pick up those still stuck in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Maja Burry

Boat taking evacuees to HMNZS. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

John Key talks to tourists waiting to leave. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

John Key in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

People waiting for buses to HMNZS. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Sarah, baby Kenoah and Tom Herrmann, from Germany, are not leaving Kaikoura yet. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Boats come back from HMNZS. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

People being transported to HMNZS. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Another load of people are transported to HMNZS. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Road damage in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage to highways near Kaikoura following the quake. Photo: RNZ / Simon Morton

Damage to highways near Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Simon Morton

Simon Morton investigates raised seabeds near Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Simon Morton

Damage in the Kaikoura area following Monday's earthquake. Photo: RNZ / Simon Morton

Damage seen near Ohau. Photo: RNZ / Simon Morton

Repair work on quake damage to buildings in central Wellington is well underway. Photo: RNZ / Aaron Smale

Quake damage in central Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Aaron Smale

Marlborough district council building inspector Cherie Newman fills out a yellow restricted access placard for a badly damaged house in Ward, south Marlborough. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Transport Minister Simon Bridges in Kaikoura today. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Prime Minister John Key talks to local Fire Service personnel in his second visit to Kaikoura since the quake overnight Sunday. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

John Key talks to Kaikoura business owners in his second visit to the town since the big quake. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Kaikoura business owners. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Tourists in Kaikoura queue to be taken to the navy ship off the coast of the quake-hit town. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Tourists being taken by bus from Kaikoura to where they can board a navy ship. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Ward resident Kerry Snell and Red Cross volunteer Ian George assess a fallen water tank on Mr Snell's property. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

HMNZS staff waiting on chopper with supplies for Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ/Rebekah Parsons-King

Navy staff waiting on chopper with supplies for Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ/Rebekah Parsons-King

Lieutenant Commander Matt Kaio arrives in Kaikoura from HMNZS Wellington. Photo: RNZ/Rebekah Parsons-King

Staff Sergeant Simon Haughey, beach master for the evacuation, and Nicole Booth, lcws, in Kaikoura, cut off after the 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck near Hanmer Springs. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

HMNZS Canterbury arrives in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ/Rebekah Parsons-King

HMNZS Canterbury arrives in Kaikoura, after the town was cut-off following the 7.5 magnitude earthquake near Hanmer Springs. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

HMNZS Canterbury arrives in Kaikoura, which has been cut-off since the 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck near Hanmer Springs. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

The police cordon around the quake-damaged buildings. Photo: RNZ / Emile Donovan

The cordon around quake-damaged Wellington buildings. Photo: RNZ / Emile Donovan

The cordon around Pipitea House. Photo: RNZ / Emile Donovan

A cordon in place in central Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Emile Donovan

Earthquake damage at the Waiau Hotel. Photo: AFP

Authorities have closed Molesworth St in central Wellington because of potential building facade collapse. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

Photo: RNZ / Mei Heron

The closed building on Molesworth St, Wellington. Photo: Mei Heron / RNZ

Fire and police officers were expected to be working through the night. Photo: RNZ / Mei Heron

Red Cross helping earthquake-stranded. Photo: Corinne Eambler / Red Cross

Waiau School has become a welfare centre for the earthquake-hit North Canterbury township. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Kaikoura resident Mark Solomon showed us around his home that was badly damaged in the quake. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage at Mark Solomon's property. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Eruera and Mark Solomon. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Mark Solomon's family home of 16 people was badly damaged in the quake. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

The kitchen contents emptied onto the floor. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Eruera Solomon, Mark Solomon's 15 year old son does not want to return to the family home. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Power lines down in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

The 4Square is closed as are most businesses. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

NZ Defence Force brings supplies. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

The facade of Mitre 10 fell in the earthquake.Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Lines of people line up outside of New World in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Takahanga Marae feeding the masses of stranded tourists. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Hundreds of people have waited for flights out of Kaikoura at the rugby club rooms. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Fire crew inspect buidlings along the main street in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

The 4Square on the main road in Kaikoura remains closed. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

A Westpac ATM is out of order. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Chinese tourists Xiaolei Chen and Jiangyong are honeymooning in New Zealand. They were evacuated by the Chinese consulate. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

People wait at the rugby club to be airlifted out. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Ward local Di Litchfield at the emergency welfare centre. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Koko Lambert with her daughter Tiara, 7, and son Elijah, 6, at the Ward emergency welfare centre. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

On Ward beach, the coastal rock shelf was lifted by the force of the quake. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

The supermarket in Seddon suffered severe damage including collapsed ceiling panels. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Seddon locals Richard Ronaki and Maki Kumasaka and their children Lyuta, 5, and Morena, 18 months. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Someone made their feelings clear at a rockfall on Marlborough road. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

A closed section of State Highway 1 between Seddon and Kēkerengū. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

NZ Defence Force evacuation. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

People are being evacuated by helicopter by the NZ Defence Force. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Chinese tourists evacuated. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Parents and children are evacuated from Kaikoura by the New Zealand Defence Force. Photo: NZDF

Families with young, old or vulnerable people are taking priority in evacuations. Photo: NZDF

New Zealand Defence personnel help evacuees settle in for their journey away from quake-stricken Kaikoura. Photo: NZDF

Four NZDF NH90 helicopters and commercial helicopters were helping evacuate tourists from the town. Photo: Supplied / NZDF

New World Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Plane lands on state highway 1. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

An image of Clarence River shows dust caused by an aftershock on November 14. Photo: AFP

Bricks have tumbled off this building in Culverden, one of the towns closest to the epicentre of Sunday nights quake. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Lines damaged on back road close to Waiau. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Rockfalls along a closed portion of State Highway 1 just south of Seddon. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

Cracks in a closed section of State Highway 1 just south of Seddon. Photo: RNZ / Kate Newton

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key (R) inspects earthquake damage from a helicopter near Kaikoura. Photo: AFP

Former All Black captain Richie McCaw who has been flying personnel after the earthquake with Prime Minister John Key. Photo: RNZ

Elms Homestead. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

As the sun sets on day one of the quake, the town of Kaikoura will grow darker with many properties and businesses without power. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

A Southland man flew to the area to check on friends and family, landing on State Highway 1. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Kaikoura township. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

After feeding 700 people the clean up begins at Takahanga marae, local business owner Dexarelli helps out. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

300 kg of crayfish waiting in the fridge at Takahanga marae for the hundreds of locals and stranded tourists tomorrow. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage outside the Kaikoura fire station. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Tourists attempt to make contact with their family after the quake. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

A family reunites after the shakes in Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

State Highway One near Oaro on the South Island's east coast. Photo: AFP

A crashed vehicle on SH1 in the wake of the devastating quake. Photo: AFP

A train is trapped by landslides on the Kaikoura coast line. Photo: AFP

Two significant fissures intersect a roadway near Rotherham. Photo: NZDF

Damage in the Mount Lyford area. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Railway cuts through State Highway 1 on the coastal road to Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage to the road between Kaikoura and Mt Lyford. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

A digger begins work on the road between Kaikoura and Mt Lyford. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage to the road between Kaikoura and Mt Lyford. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Lights seen above Wellington during yesterday's earthquake. Photo: Instagram: sana_aljoj

Road damage in the Waiau Valley/Mt Lyford area. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Aerial surveys by Royal New Zealand Air Force aircraft showed massive rockfalls in several areas in the upper South Island. Photo: The New Zealand Defence Force

Two buildings on Picton's High Street damaged in Earthquake. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal

Acting Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee, Prime Minister John Key and entourage take off on blustery Wellington day heading to Kaikoura. Photo: RNZ / Mei Heron

Earthquake damage and slips around Kaikoura after the Hanmer Springs earthquake on November 14. Photo: Garden City Helicopters

Railway damage 20km south of Cheviot, as seen from the air. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Road damage 10km south of Clarence. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Earthquake damage and slips around Kaikoura after the Hanmer Springs earthquake on November 14. Photo: Garden City Helicopters

Earthquake damage and slips around Kaikoura after the Hanmer Springs earthquake on November 14. This is an inland slip. Photo: Garden City Helicopters

A house at Bluff Station between Blenheim & Kaikoura, which is right on the Kekerengu fault line, was demolished by the shakes. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

Damage at Wellington Port after the 7.5 quake hit near Hamner Springs. Photo: RNZ / Phil Pennington

Pictures of damage to home of Cheviot GP Anthea Prentice, at Claverley, near Cheviot. Photo: Supplied

Rail and bridge damage 20km south of Clarence. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Damage 20km south of Clarence, seen from the air. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Pictures of damage to the section of Cheviot GP Anthea Prentice, at Claverley, near Cheviot. Photo: Supplied

Road damage near Kaikoura. Photo: Twitter / @lou_gordongreen

Ohau Point on State Highway 1 has been completely blocked after this morning's shakes. Photo: Supplied / NZTA

A fresh landslide on the north east coast of South Island. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

Damage at Wellington Port after the 7.5 quake hit near Hamner Springs. Photo: RNZ / Phil Pennington

Broken windows in the Farmers Institute building on Featherston St, Wellington, after the 7.5 magnitude earthquake centred near Hanmer Springs. Photo: RNZ / Phil Pennington

MP Stuart Smith in Kaikoura. Photo: supplied

Earthquake damage around the Conway River area. Photo: Andrew Macfarlane

The Massey University campus in Wellington was closed. Photo: RNZ / John Gerritsen

Four Square Culverden owner Andrew Whittleston is thankful he's got a generator to keep his frozen goods on ice with power yet to be restored to the town. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Lines company working to restore power in North Canterbury Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Damage on the state highway just before Hanmer Springs Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Hundreds of people moved to higher ground on Mount Victoria, Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Broken glass in Wakefield Street in Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Broken glass on Cable St from an apartment building Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Cars in the Wellington suburb of Mt Victoria after the earthquake. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Displaced Wellington residents Kenny Yeh, Daniel Sik and Alex Laing. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

Evacuees at Amberley Pavillion, in North Canterbury, where a community welfare centre was set up in after the midnight earthquake. Photo: Conan Young /RNZ

Tea is served for evacuees at the Amberley Pavillion afte a 7.5 magnitude quake hit near Hanmer Springs. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

The road towards Seddon has been closed. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal

The quake threw groceries off shelves and broke wine bottles at the Culverden 4 Square store. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

The quake damage could be clearly seen on Leader Rd in Kaikoura. Photo: Twitter / @Nicola_RaynerNZ

The quake threw groceries off shelves and broke wine bottles at the Culverden. Photo: RNZ / Conan Young

Richard Bicknell tweeted this picture of his kitchen after the severe earthquake. Photo: Twitter / Richard Bicknell

Earthquake damage in central Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Susie Ferguson

Pane of glass smashed from a window of a inner city building on The Terrace, Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

An emergency sign at Massey University's Wellington campus. Photo: RNZ / John Gerritsen

Victoria Greenwood-Loose and Lexie Loose at the Tua Marina Memorial Hall in Marlborough, which was set up as a Civil Defence welfare centre. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal

Damage to road on The Terrace around a construction site. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King

A fresh landslide on the north east coast of South Island. Photo: RNZ / Alex Perrottet

The Good Vibes store on Manners St in Wellington. Photo: RNZ / John Gerritsen

A collapsed pile of logs at a Wellington wharf. Photo: AFP

Broken glass on a building in Manners St in Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Alexa Cook

Damage in a central Wellington store. Photo: RNZ / Alexa Cook

New Zealand Crown Research Institute for geophysics and nuclear science, GNS Science said there had been more than 800 aftershocks since the 7.5 magnitude earthquake rocked the country yesterday.

Most have been centred 10km to 20km east of the Marlborough town of Seddon, but several strong aftershocks have struck close to the centre of Kaikoura.

GNS duty seismologist Natalie Balfour told Morning Report three 'severe' category quakes struck last night, measuring as high as 5.8.

"We've had about 832 was our last update of aftershocks since the main event," she said.

"And yes, things have been really rolling along, we get about 20 an hour.

"Over magnitude 5, since the main event, we've had about 40 of those."

Dr Balfour said the most likely scenario was still that aftershocks would decrease in frequency and intensity.

GeoNet predictions

Scenario 1 - Very likely (80 percent and greater): A normal aftershock sequence that is spread over the next few months to years. Felt aftershocks (about magnitude 5 and above) would occur from the midnight quake's epicentre near Culverden, right up along the Kaikoura coastline to Cape Campbell over the next few months to years. This is the most likely scenario.
Scenario 2 - Likely (60 percent and greater): In the next month, it is likely earthquakes of about magnitude 6 in the North Canterbury and Marlborough regions will occur, as well as potentially offshore in Southern Cook Strait and offshore Kaikoura.
Scenario 3 - Unlikely (less than 40 percent): The least likely scenario is that in the next month, there would be earthquakes of about magnitude 7 on longer known faults in the Marlborough and Cook Strait regions.

Scientists are also poring over seismic, satelitte and GPS data to understand the complex rupture sequence that produced the roughly two minutes of shaking felt throughout the country.

GeoNet and GNS's Geohazards Monitoring head Ken Gledhill said the aftershocks seemed to be reducing but more could be expected.

"The overall numbers are trending dow, at about the rate we'd expect, so that's the good news at the moment. I suppose you've already mentioned what's the potential bad news is - there's still the potential of a larger earthquake and we just cannot rule that out.

"What we're seeing at the moment is a pretty normal aftershocks sequence."

"Bear in mind that bit of the country is a bit like a train wreck ... it's a real junction, where a lot of things happening."

He said he would describe the 7.5 event yesterday as a complex earthquake which involved several fault breaks:

The Kekerengu Fault, which runs between the southeast and northwest through Ward to the coast, appears to have had up to 10m of slip
A newly identified fault at Waipapa Bay
Minor movement on the seaward segment of the Hope Fault which runs almost between Hokitika and Kaikoura
The Hundalee Fault, which ends close to the Kaikoura coast

The aftershocks and shifts did seem to be moving north, he said, but there was no guarantee of where the next big one could hit.

"What we can see on the surface is four places where different faults, where some are already identified, have actually had major movement. Looking at the data we have, it does look like it changes its nature as it comes north.

"So the action moved north basically and it changes its character as it moves north."

"I think what the last few years has demonstrated is I would be very foolish to say the next big earthquake is going to be in Wellington - we frankly don't know.

What was becoming obvious was New Zealand was moving into a period of more earthquakes, he said.

"There's been periods in history - and most of us grew up in the period of 50 years or so when there was hardly any large earthquakes - our parents grew up when there was a lot of large earthquakes in through the '20s and '40s."

Stranded tourists choppered out of Kaikoura

Quake aftermath: What you need to know today

Kaikoura will suffer economically after quake - PM

The aftermath of the 7.8 earthquake so far

'Utter devastation': NZ rocked by 7.5 magnitude quake

Earthquake: Two die after massive tremors