Kaiaua. Photo: Libby Kirkby-McLeod / RNZ
Communities along the Firth of Thames are planning for an uncertain future by taking the lead in creating a plan to face the hazards expected over the next 100 years.
It is not just a theoretical exercise; in 2018, many homes in Kaiaua were flooded by a storm that caused a double-whammy - rain pouring down the hills into their backyards and waves crashing into their front yards.
In 2018, community panel chairperson Gay Rawiri and her husband were unable to leave their home for two days after a major storm hit their community of Kaiaua, on the Auckland side of the Firth of Thames.
But in order to plan that far ahead, Rawiri said she does not just think about that lived experience; she also thinks about the next generation.
"I look at what I would like for my mokopuna -she comes for school holidays, that she could always come here and would have a place to stand."
Her husband Frank was an iwi representative for Ngati Pāoa, and supported the community plan group. He agreed the plan was about intergenerational thinking.
"The impacts of rising seas may not affect the generation that is here at the moment, but we understand and acknowledge that it's going to affect the next generation that is coming behind us."
He said we need to plan for that change - now.
Three councils cover the affected Firth of Thames coast - Waikato District Council, Waikato and Regional Council, and Hauraki District Council.
Waikato Regional Council's Witney Mills said that over the last 60 years there had been approximately 20 flooding events on the coast.
Gay and Frank Rawiri. Photo: Libby Kirkby-McLeod / RNZ
"It just goes to show the vulnerability of this community to coastal flooding, river flooding, but also how low lying they are with a risk to sea level rise."
The community plan provides the local community with confidence and a plan for a resilient future. It has only been done this way once before in New Zealand, in Hawke's Bay. Rawiri said this was a good thing.
"We could work along the line of having a clean slate. There were no models, no rights and wrong."
Nina Murphy from Hauraki District Council said the community was quite clear that they wanted councils to start planning now.
"We might not need to do the actions now, but if we start planning now they will be better prepared in the future."
The plan's suggestions include improving drain maintenance, making sure new residents know the hazards before they buy property, flood gates, and the need to resettle people whose houses may not be able to stay where they are.
The hope is that by planning now any moves can be proactive, rather than being forced on people once extreme weather has already taken their home.
"If there is a property you know is going to get smashed in the next flood, could the council purchase that property?" asked Gay Rawiri. "We all love where we live - lease that property back to the people that you purchased it off, so they can stay here."
Hauraki Mayor Toby Adams said the process of working with the community was fantastic, but any new council could come in and overturn the plan.
"The best thing we can always do is just keep our community fighting and pushing for it, and make it relevant to them."
That was why it was so important that it is community-led, he said.
Kaiaua. Photo: Libby Kirkby-McLeod / RNZ
Alejando Cifuentes works for Waikato Regional Council. He said there were a number of challenges with keeping the plan alive for 100 years, and it went beyond current council staff, and beyond the people that living in the community at the moment.
"There's the inherent uncertainty of not knowing how the plan will survive to 100 years."
The community panel has now handed the plan over to the councils to do the difficult work of figuring out how to pay for what the community is asking for.
Gay Rawiri said of the 100 suggestions the community made, 20 were going to be adopted.
"It's the other 80 that are going to make the difference to our community."
Everyone thought the government was going to need to be involved. Adams said there did seem to have been some change in the government's approach since Cyclone Gabrielle.
"The government has indicated that there is property buyout dollars available that would be matched by local government and property owners."
Gay Rawiri said the panel had now disbanded, but they were keeping an eye on what was happening and would rattle the cans if needed.
