Canterbury University has more NZ students than ever, but others are struggling. FIle photo. Photo: Facebook / University of Canterbury
Universities are wrestling with each another for domestic enrolments, prompting swings worth tens of millions of dollars a year in fees and government funding.
Canterbury and Lincoln now have a bigger share of the market than before the pandemic began, arguably at the expense of universities such as Victoria and Massey.
The South Island pair were the only universities that grew their domestic enrolments last year, and Canterbury has more New Zealand students than ever.
Both universities told RNZ their domestic numbers increased again this year and Auckland, AUT, Waikato and Victoria also reported domestic growth.
University enrolments have swung sharply since the pandemic began in 2019, with domestic student numbers spiking in 2021 and then dropping away in 2022 and 2023.
Despite the recent falls, the total number of full-time equivalent domestic students at universities last year was higher than in 2019, but how they were shared changed dramatically.
Massey, Victoria and AUT had fewer domestics in 2023 than before the pandemic and while the other five had more students, Canterbury and Lincoln grew the most.
Canterbury had about 3000 more full-time domestic students than in 2019 and its assistant vice-chancellor engagement Brett Berquist said it had not stopped yet.
"Last year for our 150th anniversary we're really pleased to have the highest enrolment in the history of the institution and 2024 we're likely to top that and for next year, based on the attendance at our open days, and other information sessions demand is up even further," he said
He said more students were coming from other parts of New Zealand and there was no one factor driving the growth, although Christchurch had become more popular generally.
"We have quite a solid catchment here regionally. Over half of the students in Canterbury region who are NCEA-qualified choose to study here and that's been pretty pretty steady. So what's been happening really is a lot more students coming from across the country to Canterbury to study. That's the more recent phenomenon," he said.
"I wouldn't say we're eating anyone's lunch. It's really about students and their families trying to make the choice that that makes the best sense for them. What we have to offer here is kind of a comprehensive campus setting, which is kind of special in New Zealand. So students can have a a room in a in a residence on campus and walk to class."
Other universities pointed at the number of scholarships Canterbury awarded - this year and last year more than 800 first-years got one.
That is more than Vic and Massey combined.
Berquist said since the 2011 quake smashed Canterbury's enrolments, the university had offered scholarships with an accommodation component, but they were not a big driver of enrolments.
"This past year, we reflected on our scholarship strategy, did some market research, some focus groups and so on and actually found that over time that was really no longer what was driving students to come here. It was nice, but it wasn't what was making them make the decision. And so we have recalibrated our scholarship spend to really reinforce our focus on student success and diversity. So that's been redistributed quite a bit for 2025," he said.
He said the university's strategic plan had a target of 22,000 full-time students, foreign and local, by 2030.
Victoria University vice-chancellor Nic Smith said competition for domestic students was a bit of a zero-sum game - if one university gained, another lost.
"I don't think it's great for the country as a whole to have big shifts in students because what you end up with is some universities being overloaded and others struggling to make ends meet," he said.
"But there's no question that we are now gaining students and gaining market share."
This year the university had more than 100 new domestic EFTS than at the same time last year and it wanted at least the same number of new students next year.
Massey vice-chancellor Jan Thomas told RNZ that Christchurch had become the city of choice for students.
"Canterbury, Christchurch, is definitely a destination of choice and students are choosing to go there rather than other university campuses but that's affecting all the universities," she said.
Massey confirmed earlier this year that domestic enrolments had fallen, in part because some courses had been cut.
It said competition for domestic students was expected to grow because the school leaver population was forecast to fall by about 30 percent by 2030.
"Although our traditional market for 25+ year olds is growing, there are now more institutions competing for that market too - both online and on campus," it said.
Massey said it was traditionally less reliant on school leavers than other universities but it was working to increase enrolments.
"This year, we saw a 14 percent increase in Open Day registrations across our three campuses and online, and we have significantly increased our marketing investment and our promotional activities," it said.
AUT said its student profile was different to Canterbury's with fewer school leavers.
It said its domestic enrolments were up two percent this year and it had record numbers at its August open day.
Waikato said its domestics were up too with about 200 more than last year.
The University of Auckland said its domestic enrolments fell last year because many of the students who started in 2021 finished their courses but this year they were up 3.3 percent.
It said there was no way of knowing if school leavers had chosen Canterbury and Lincoln over the University of Auckland.
"Our research shows that three-quarters of Auckland school leavers opt for the University of Auckland or AUT, a number that has been steady for the past decade."
