Today is the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Photo: SERGEY SHESTAK / AFP
Ukrainians in New Zealand say they can not let the suffering of their people fall off the radar as the war in their homeland enters another year.
Today marks the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to nearly a million estimated casualties.
'People have no future'
Dr Olga Dubnytska was born in Ukraine and works as a GP in Palmerston North.
She said family and friends in and around the war-torn country say it is hard to see an end to the bloodshed.
"People have no future. Kids have no future and that's very painful.
"Life now and again goes on. So people start schools and jobs and think 'coming back to normal life' but it's obviously not normal life because they don't know what is tomorrow and what is tomorrow going to bring them," Dubnytska said.
She said recent remarks from newly elected US President Donald Trump - where he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "a dictator" and implied that Ukraine had started the war - were adding to that climate of uncertainty.
Dubnytska said the apparent u-turn from Ukraine's most powerful ally was dashing hopes that the country could emerge from the war with its independence intact.
"So the hope what we thought and the help we were going to have - somehow - it's slowly disappearing.
"We're still praying for something better to happen and thinking the whole world should wake up and probably do something," Dubnytska said.
She said she was baffled that the major powers of the word had allowed Russia's invasion of Ukraine to continue for as long as it had, but to negotiate peace without input from Zelensky and his government was unimaginable.
"I don't want the world to give up on us and not involve the Ukrainian president in the decision making. It's absolutely wrong.
"How we can talk about somebody else's life with out including [the] people?" she said.
'We cannot survive without our allies'
Former chair of the Ukrainian Association of New Zealand Yuriy Gladun said he said he was proud of his country's unity and strength in the face of a massive foe.
"Ukraine showed to the world its force, its national unity, its willingness to stay as it is, to be Ukraine. But we cannot survive without the help of our allies."
He said the war had global implications and - while Europe outsized Russia in terms of economy and populations - Russia had been building its military might for decades.
"Ukraine is only first step. They want back half of Europe. It doesn't matter by military means, by political means, that's the case," Gladun said.
Gladun said he feared that a peace achieved without Ukrainian input and conditions would be a disaster for the Ukrainian people.
"If Putin gets his upper hand on Ukraine, first of all, some of the most active [in Ukrainian resistance] will be arrested, some of them killed. The one's who don't want to live in those conditions will flee which will cause huge immigration crisis in Europe again and those who stay will be forced to forget that they are Ukrainians," Gladun said.
Trump allowing major concessions 'very disturbing'
Associate professor in politics for Otago University James Headley said Ukraine's ability to withstand the Russian invasion for three years was testimony to the strength of the Ukrainian people, their leadership and the support of their allies.
He said the United Kingdom's strengthening of sanctions and extra commitments in terms of defence spending meant that - despite the drawn out war - there was still appetite in Europe for assisting Ukraine.
But the apparent American stance would be of concern in Ukraine and could splinter the unity that has kept the country's war effort going in the face of massive odds.
"The way that the Trump administration has basically already allowed major concessions for no return to Putin is very disturbing.
"There were over the last year or so noises about 'we can go on like this forever. With our energy infrastructure continuously being destroyed, our buildings being destroyed, people on the front-line being killed'. But to do it on Putin's terms or even [to allow] his more minimal aims - to annex four regions of the Ukraine in addition to Crimea - would still be very very difficult to swallow especially after so much sacrifice," Headley said.
He said the destabilisation in the wake of Trump's re-election meant actors in the region would be watching the United States' manoeuvrings around the NATO commitment more closely than ever.
"There's basically a line of 'great powers do what they want'. Trump himself talking about that in terms of Panama and Greenland and Canada. A world like that is deeply disturbing and deeply threatening for the states surrounding Russia. What does it mean if Putin does manage to carve out areas of Ukraine successfully and there's no security guarantees to prevent him doing that elsewhere?" Headley said.
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