Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
The National Party will discuss strategy around forming a government this afternoon, after everyone has finished watching the All Blacks game, says campaign chair Chris Bishop.
Along with ACT, they would have 61 seats on current voting in a Parliament of 121, according to the Electoral Commission count. About half a million special votes are still to be counted.
Bishop has told a Morning Report election special that National was in an "interesting position" around forming a government with ACT.
He noted the conciliatory remarks by NZ First leader Winston Peters - who said he would help if he could going forward - and National's Christopher Luxon in speeches on Saturday night.
NZ First has returned to parliament, with eight projected list seats. Luxon acknowledged Peters' comments.
The National Party strategy group was set to meet on Sunday afternoon.
"We're going to have a meeting as a senior team this afternoon in Auckland and no doubt there'll be media availability during the day and then in the coming days as well," Bishop said.
"And so I think as we just sort of digest things, get the lie of the land, we will be providing updates to the extent that we can.
"We want to obviously move to form a government - but these things don't just happen overnight and they're not immediate things. And that's the way MMP works."
With about half a million special votes still to be counted, Bishop said they expected to lose a seat or so later.
"Traditionally, the National Party loses a seat on the specials. We just have to wait and see. We've run a strong overseas vote campaign but of course, the special votes are not just overseas votes - there are also people enrolling on the day, for example, as well. So we'll just have to wait and see.
"And of course, we had that issue with the Electoral Commission data yesterday, the database, the backend system, which as I understand, it means that quite a few people had to cast special votes who might not otherwise have cast special votes. So we don't yet have a full read of it."
The party was overall happy with the results, he said, adding it was a sign of a strong mood for change.
"I think people ultimately got to the ballot box and reflected on the last six years and just said, well, basically, 'Am I better off than I was six years ago? Is the country heading in the right direction?' And the honest answer I think many people go for that question is that they're pretty frustrated at the lack of progress on a lot of issues - whether it's law and order, health, education, and, of course, the cost of living, which overshadowed much of the campaign and the economic management by the government more generally.
"And I think people are very frustrated, and I think they looked at National and said, 'yep, actually, there's a better pathway here'. Not everyone obviously, but, you know, a good chunk of voters and that's what it's about."
'There'll be some tough negotiating' - Don Brash on ACT
Don Brash, who led the ACT Party for seven months in 2011, told Morning Report he suspected Seymour would be disappointed because poll results had them above the current level.
"What caused that erosion of support for ACT I don't know... I suspect it was the rise of New Zealand First, but for whatever reason, they've actually done better than in 2020."
Don Brash Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
Seymour would want to show he was a responsible player as part of negotiations, Brash said.
"But clearly, unlike almost any other party in Parliament, ACT has a very strong and specific set of policies ... many of them are quite inconsistent with National's... There'll be some tough negotiating over the next few months no doubt."
Brash said some of their top priorities would be getting government books under control, reinterpreting the Treaty of Waitangi principles, and improving productivity.
"I think they won't be straightforward. Seymour has obviously said he wants to scrap a whole bunch of ministries, that's nowhere near where National has been, at least in the campaign."
While campaigning, Luxon already ruled out a referendum on the treaty, saying it would be "divisive" for the country.
'We need to review what happened' - Labour's Megan Woods
Megan Woods at Labour's Christchurch election event in Bromley on 14 October, 2023. Photo: RNZ / Niva Chittock
Labour campaign manager Megan Woods said Bishop was right in that there was a "mood for change".
"I think that was really strong and was coming through, and we're seeing that globally with incumbent governments that were there through Covid as well. Not trying to be defensive about it - obviously we have to go back and have a look at what we did, have a look at the campaign itself."
She said the "huge" number of doors knocked by party volunteers "clearly wasn't enough" but she was proud of everyone's effort.
Woods said it was "far too early" for a prognosis on whether Labour was too negative during the campaign.
"We need to review what happened… that mood for change was there and we need to look how much of it was the campaign, and how much of it were forces that we're seeing globally as well with incumbent governments. They're all really deep questions we need to give a lot of thought too."
Another analysis will need to be done on why Labour performed more strongly on votes counted later in the evening - those made on the day itself, rather than early.
As for her view on what kind of government Luxon would lead, Wood said it depended on whether New Zealand First ended up being involved.
