Fearless sporting predictions for 2025

Analysis: The really great thing about sport is no-one ever really knows what's going to happen.

Oh, so-called experts will prognosticate the precise outcomes of rugby matches and punters will try to cover all manner of possibilities with an array of bets, but none of them ever really know.

They're guessing.

So, with tongue firmly in cheek, here are some more dodgy forecasts for the coming sporting year.

All Whites book tickets to third Football World Cup

OK, let's start with an easy one - no Pacific nation will upset New Zealand for a spot at the new, expanded 2026 World Cup in Canada, USA and Mexico.

You may think that's a given, but upsets have happened before.

Since 2006, when the Aussies headed off to the more lucrative Asia Confederation, the Kiwis have had their own way in Oceania, with two exceptions. In 2012, they were beaten by Vanuatu in the OFC Nations Cup semi-finals and New Caledonia subsequently represented the region at the Confederations Cup.

Four years later, Vanuatu dumped the All Whites out of the 2016 Rio Olympics qualifying tournament in the semis, then lost to Fiji on penalties in the final.

Not this time though.

New Zealand face Fiji in the qualifying semis on 21 March, with the winners taking on either New Caledonia or Tahiti for a guaranteed World Cup berth. Both games will take place in Wellington, not the hostile environs of Solomon Islands or Papua New Guinea, like those previous slip-ups.

FIFA has expanded its showpiece tournament from 32 to 48 teams and Oceania no longer has to play off with the fourth-best South Americans like last time.

Fearless prediction: New Zealand will beat Fiji and New Caledonia to qualify for the Football World Cup.

Liam Lawson not great, but not disastrous either

Now we have moved past the hype of having a Kiwi back in the world's premier motorsport championship, can we please now move on to focus on results.

Last time, we had a homegrown Formula One driver, Brendan Hartley kept us all entertained with his 2017-18 misadventures for the Red Bull Toro Rosso team. Across 25 races, he failed to finish seven times and scored championship points in three.

Lawson should be better than that, but will he win a race? Probably not.

He may not be better than the man he replaced, Mexican Sergio Perez, who badly let down Red Bull Racing and world champion Max Verstappen in their quest for a manufacturers crown last year.

Perez wasn't that bad at the start of the season, with four podiums in the first five races, but fell away midway through the schedule to finish eighth in the standings.

Fearless prediction: Liam Lawson will regularly finish in the top eight, but still not enough to give Red Bull team honours.

All Blacks recapture bragging rights over Springboks

Scott Robertson's honeymoon period is over, and now he must knuckle down to producing the results expected of him and any other All Blacks coach.

He must forget about the players you don't have and focus on the ones will still crawl over glass for the black jersey.

Robertson now realises international rugby is a completely different beast to kick-and-giggle Super Rugby and must take his own game to the next level.

Biggest priority for the year must be defending the Eden Park fortress against the invading Springboks horde on 6 September, because protecting that 30-year unbeaten record is worth its weight in gold against future opponents.

New Zealand have actually beaten South African four times at the 'national stadium' during that 50-game streak, but they haven't played there for 12 years.

Fearless prediction: Smiling Damian McKenzie will kick a penalty in the dying moments to secure victory over the Springboks at Eden Park.

Black Ferns beat England to retain Rugby World Cup

Three years ago, the NZ women captured the hearts of a nation - and broke the hearts of another - when they ended England's three-year unbeaten run to retain the World Cup on home soil.

Six months out, they looked absolutely dead in the water, after a disastrous northern tour and claims of bullying within the camp. Enter 'rugby professor' Wayne Smith, who revamped the entire programme and brought them back up to speed in time for the tournament.

These days, Smith is enjoying some downtime, after a distinguished career of masterminding Kiwi World Cup triumphs. His presence may be required again, if the women are to defend their title again.

They have lost six of their last 11 fixtures, including three against rampant-again England, but you get the feeling the talent is there - it just needs some tweaking.

In particular, the Ferns forwards must either find a way to outmuscle their English counterparts, or completely flip the script and run them off their feet. This sounds like a question for the professor.

Fearless prediction: Wayne Smith returns to the Black Ferns and adds another chapter to his World Cup legacy.

What next for Joseph Parker?

Everyone loves Parker, even his opponents.

He's that engaging pugilist that kept the world smiling through COVID with his quirky home videos.

No-one wants to see him lose, because he's like a breath of fresh air in a sport governed by hyperbole - but this year, he will face another crossroads in his career.

Since losing his world crown six years ago, Parker has clawed his way back up heavyweight ladder to earn another shot at an IBF title against Brit Daniel Dubois in February. The winner will take on Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk for all the other belts later in the year.

The crystal ball says Parker will beat Dubois, but not Usyk, and by year's end, he will have to come to grips with the reality that his run is over.

He has already dipped his toe into boxing promotion with Kiwi sidekick David Nyika and that may soon become his fulltime gig.

Fearless prediction: Joseph Parker loses his world heavyweight title fight against Oleksandr Usyk and retires from the ring.

Second Halberg for Dame Lydia Ko

Apart from a COVID pandemic, nothing divides the nation more than the annual Halberg Awards and this year should prove no different.

How do you differentiate between paddler Dame Lisa Carrington - who became our most successful Olympian at Paris - two-time cycling gold medallist Ellesse Andrews, Hall-of-Fame golfer Dame Lydia Ko and World Cup-winning cricketer Amelia Kerr?

And that's just the women. High jumper Hamish Kerr won Olympic gold and a world indoor championship in an event where Kiwis have no international pedigree, but James McDonald is the world's best jockey and footballer Chris Wood is a goalscoring freak in the world's top club competition.

Dame Lydia won the Halberg Supreme Award in 2013, when she first turned professional, and has ridden a career rollercoaster that includes three Major championships, 19 other LPGA wins and a full set of Olympic medals.

Poetically, her gold at Paris was enough to clinch entry into the LPGA Hall of Fame and was followed by her third Major title at the British Open for good measure. Surely that's enough.

Fearless predictions: Dame Lydia Ko (Sportswoman & Supreme), Hamish Kerr (Sportsman), White Ferns (Team), Anna Grimaldi (Para Athlete) and Jon Andrews (Coach) win Halberg Awards.

Steven Adams answers Tall Blacks call

Word on the street suggests our current NBA basketball star was very close to finally throwing on a black singlet, before suffering a debilitating knee injury that kept him out of basketball for most of 2023.

Adams hasn't represented New Zealand since he was a teenager, choosing to pursue his professional career and supporting Kiwi talent through his basketball camps back home. After 82 games a season, plus playoffs, NBA players often prioritise rest, recovery, family time and surgery ahead of international commitments.

The Tall Blacks have continued to battle above their weight without their best player, but failed to qualify for the Paris Olympics against European superpowers that did have NBA stars on board.

This year, Adams is coming off the Houston Rockets bench behind up-and-coming Turkish centre Alperen Sengun, logging only 10 minutes a game and managing his injury recovery by sitting out the odd fixture. He's played just 22 of their 35 games so far, so his mileage is much less than previously.

If his body remains intact, the big Kiwi should have plenty left in the tank.

Fearless prediction: At 31, Steven Adams finally makes his Tall Blacks debut at the FIBA Asia Cup in Saudi Arabia.

Is this finally the Warriors' year?

For 30 years, the Auckland-based club has chased the elusive NRL premiership, starting each season with high hopes, only to see them dashed somewhere along the line.

It has reached the playoffs nine times and twice - in 2002 and 2011 - reached the Grand Final, only to fall at the last hurdle.

Of the current 17 teams, the Warriors are now the longest serving without winning a crown, but at least they have never won the wooden spoon either.

Last time they made the playoffs in 2023, new coach Andrew Webster seemed destined to finally break the hoodoo, but he came crashing to earth last year, and has now lost star front-rower Addin Fonua-Blake (to Cronulla Sharks) and veteran half Shaun Johnson (retirement) for the new season.

The crystal ball says this WILL be the Warriors' year - just not for their men.

Fearless prediction: Warriors men will lose early in the NRL playoffs, but their wahine will capture the club's first NRLW premiership.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.