Andrew Little. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
- Labour leader Chris Hipkins definitively ruled out joining the AUKUS security pact at the weekend
- Labour's last minister of defence Andrew Little says this was an "easy promise" to make
- Little believes AUKUS is pretty much over, with little progress on the pact over the last two years
Former defence minister Andrew Little says New Zealand will continue to depend on Australia, the UK and the US for military technology, whether it joins AUKUS or not.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out joining the security pact at the party's annual conference in Christchurch at the weekend.
Little - Labour's last minister of defence - said the party was clearly trying to put a stake in the ground on the issue but it was an "easy promise" to make.
"It's not going to require a great deal. Promising not to sign up to an agreement that is probably not going to go anywhere is an easy thing to do."
Little said AUKUS was "pretty much over" because progress on Pillar 1 had stalled.
"At the heart of AUKUS Pillar 1 is the US providing nuclear propulsion technology to the UK and Australia for submarines but that's only allowed to happen with congressional approval.
"AUKUS has been around for roughly two-and-a-half years and congressional approval hasn't been given. It's predictable, I think, under the second Donald Trump administration, which is very much about America first and America isolationism, that it is even less likely that congressional approval will be given for that element of it.
"That means that that part of AUKUS is pretty much over and then the question is, in terms of AUKUS Pillar 2, will that be infected by the same sort of sentiment in which case we're back to square one; there is no AUKUS agreement in reality and we are back dealing with our long standing partners to secure our military equipment."
Little said New Zealand had - and would continue - to rely on the AUKUS alliance trio of Australia, the UK and the US for defence technology and equipment.
"The reality is we are dependant on others for our military technology, we're going to continue to have to have relationships with others and that will primarily be those three countries."
The former defence minister said it was more important politicians kept the public informed about security and defence challenges, particularly in light of the US election result.
"It is predictable that there will be greater emphasis on countries close to the US taking greater responsibility for their defence and their defence spending and as a small country, dependent on others to provide military equipment, we need to hear from our politicians about what that means."
Little said a second Trump administration would no doubt have several impacts on the Pacific region.
"One is [the United States] clearly see themselves in competition with China and Donald Trump, when he gets into a competition, is in to win.
"On the other hand, we know his attitude towards defence and multilateral or bilateral relationships is that he's not a big fan of them so he might want to compete with China, but he doesn't necessarily want to be shoring up or funding the defence needs of a whole lot of partner countries.
"The increase in tension we might expect in the US-China relationship will have an impact on the Pacific, and particularly the South Pacific, as China reaches out to particularly smaller countries, which is what it has a strategy to do, to win their support, but also to win their strategic engagement. "
Little said it was likely US engagement in the Pacific, which notably increased during the Biden administration, would be pulled back.
"President Biden had given some attention to Pacific leaders and hosted them twice at the White House.
"I think we're unlikely to see that continuing ... what we can expect is the US's commitment to be present and available and supplying defence support is likely to be curtailed."
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