Photo: KiwiRail
After a spate of near-disasters and cost-cutting, an announcement on the future of the Interislander is coming within the week.
The look, size and cost of the new Interislander ferries will be revealed any day now, but there is much more to it than a deal to acquire two big ships.
A year after Finance Minister Nicola Willis canned the two iReX mega ferries after a cost blowout, the long-awaited replacements for the ageing, accident-prone vessels will be announced on or before 11 December.
BusinessDesk journalist Oli Lewis says the government is under immense pressure from a range of industries, lobby groups and unions with conflicting interests.
"To make drastic changes to the structure or the vessels that ply that route will be a massive legacy for the government. If they get it wrong they'll cop a lot of flak over a long time for it.
"If they somehow manage to get a very good solution then Nicola Willis and co deserve applause for it as well."
Among the decisions ministers risk facing flak over is whether or not the ships will be rail-enabled, meaning they have built-in rail tracks, allowing rail wagons to be shunted directly onboard.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will only say that the ferries will be "rail compatible", where the wagons are taken off the tracks, put onto a truck or trolley to go on the ship and reloaded onto the tracks on the other side.
Lewis says the government believes rail tracks on boats are outdated but maritime experts, KiwiRail and at least one major freight firm say it is more efficient and environmentally sustainable.
Mainfreight head Don Braid has argued that ships without rail tracks will add time to the logistics of freighting goods.
"Time is money in the logistics business and they want to be able to accommodate faster turnarounds which they say rail-enabled ferries will do," Lewis says.
However, trucking firms say the rail-enabled ships are unnecessary and costly.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Keeping costs down is crucial after the controversy over the iReX project, which soared from the budgeted $1.45 billion to $3 billion.
Luxon has promised that the new ferries will be "a lot cheaper than $3.2 billion", but Lewis points out that the government is already starting with a $600 million deficit from the cost of breaking the deal with Hyundai Mipo shipyard, which was contracted to build the two iReX ships.
As a self-confessed infrastructure nerd, Lewis says he is "sincerely excited" about the announcement, when and where it will be made - possibly at the port in Wellington - and who will front it, Luxon and/or Willis and/or Winston Peters?
Lewis points out that Peters was in the Labour government that drove the now-cancelled iReX project, but he blamed Labour for mishandling it in its next term when he was out of government. However, in recent months he has publicly stated his preference for rail-enabled ferries, underlining New Zealand First's strong support of the railways.
"He's also the one who either jumped the gun or wanted to get a head start on his coalition partners. He was the one who told everyone first that we would have a decision by 11 December."
Lewis outlines to The Detail the possible options for the new ferries, including choosing to buy second-hand or to charter ships to keep the costs down.
Even if the ferries are already on order, they will not be arriving next year, he says.
"Expect 2028 or '29 when we receive the ferries.
"But as Nicola Willis said, we'll get more of a Toyota than a Ferrari."
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