By Pavel Polityuk
A March 2022 image of the wrecked market place in the city of Sievierodonetsk, in Ukraine's Luhansk province - one of the regions where pro-Russian figures say referendums on joining Russia will be held in coming days. Photo:
Moscow-installed leaders in occupied areas of four Ukrainian regions plan to hold referendums on joining Russia in coming days, a challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the war and that has drawn condemnation from Ukraine and its allies.
"The Russians can do whatever they want. It will not change anything," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday in response to reporters' questions at the United Nations.
In a tweet, he added: "Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them whatever Russia has to say."
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington rejected any such referendums "unequivocally," and the European Union and Canada condemned the plan.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the bloc and its member states would not recognise the outcome of the referendums and would consider further measures against Russia if the votes went ahead.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda both used the word "parody" to describe the planned votes.
In the apparently co-ordinated move, pro-Russian figures announced referendums for 23-27 September in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, representing around 15 percent of Ukrainian territory, or an area about the size of Hungary.
Russia already considers Luhansk and Donetsk, which together make up the Donbas region Moscow partially occupied in 2014, to be independent states. Ukraine and the West consider all parts of Ukraine held by Russian forces to be illegally occupied.
A helmet is hung on the barrel of a rifle in Kupiansk, in Ukraine's Kharkiv province, after the city was regained from Russian forces this week. Photo: Metin Aktas / ANADOLU AGENCY / Anadolu Agency via AFP
Moscow to order mobilisation?
Some pro-Kremlin figures framed the referendums as an ultimatum to the West to accept Russian territorial gains or face an all-out war with a nuclear-armed foe.
"Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self-defence," Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and now hawkish deputy chairman of President Vladimir Putin's Security Council, said on social media.
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the pro-Kremlin RT TV station, wrote: "Today a referendum, tomorrow recognition as part of the Russian Federation, the day after tomorrow strikes on Russian territory become a full-fledged war between Ukraine and NATO and Russia, untying Russia's hands in every respect."
The United States and NATO allies that have been backing Ukraine with weapons and other support said such plebiscites would be meaningless.
If the referendum plan "wasn't so tragic it would be funny", Macron told reporters in New York, where leaders were arriving for a United Nations General Assembly meeting likely to be dominated by the war in Ukraine.
A spokesperson for Lithuania's Nauseda quoted him as saying: "These regions are and will be Ukraine, and Russia's sham referendums are illegal. Lithuania will never recognise them."
Reframing the fighting in occupied territory as an attack on Russia could give Moscow a justification to mobilise its two million-strong military reserves. Moscow has so far resisted such a move despite mounting losses in what it calls a limited "special military operation" rather than a war.
Sullivan said Washington was aware of reports that Putin might be considering ordering a mobilisation, which Sullivan said would do nothing to undermine Ukraine's ability to push back Russian aggression.
Russia has declared capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces to be its main aim since its invasion forces were defeated in March on the outskirts of Kyiv.
It now holds about 60 percent of Donetsk and had captured nearly all of Luhansk by July after slow advances during months of intense fighting. Those gains are now under threat after Russian forces were driven from neighbouring Kharkiv province this month, losing control of their main supply lines for much of the Donetsk and Luhansk front lines.
The referendums were announced a day after Ukraine said its troops had recaptured a foothold in Luhansk, the village of Bilohorivka, and were preparing to advance across the province.
Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai told Ukrainian TV that the referendums are "illegitimate ... And the (Ukrainian) president and his administration have made it plain that if they hold a referendum, we will resolve the matter strictly by means of force, by liberating our territory."
The general staff of Ukraine's armed forces said on Tuesday evening that its operations in Donetsk near the towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka caused Russia to suffer "significant losses". But Russia shelled those towns and dozens more in north-eastern and southern Ukraine, the general staff said. Reuters could not independently verify those reports.
The abandoned and damaged market area in Kupiansk in Ukraine's Kharkiv province, after the city was regained from Russian forces this week. Photo: Metin Aktas / ANADOLU AGENCY / Anadolu Agency via AFP
In the south, Russia controls most of Zaporizhzhia but not its regional capital. In Kherson, where the regional capital is the only major city Russia has so far captured intact since the invasion, Ukraine has launched a major counter-offensive.
Unverified footage on social media showed Ukrainian forces in Bilohorivka, which lies just 10 kilometres west of the city of Lysychansk that fell to the Russians after weeks of some of the war's most intense fighting in July.
- Reuters
