28 Sep 2022

Wages not matching thriving labour market - survey

10:44 am on 28 September 2022

The labour market is booming, but wages are a concern for many. Photo: RNZ / Dan Cook

Confidence in the labour market has rebounded, but workers do not feel like they are seeing much movement in their pay.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose 6.7 points in the three months ended September to 115.2, after falling for the first time in two years in the June quarter.

Any reading above 100 indicates optimism, while anything below suggests pessimism.

Respondents were bullish about their current job opportunities, as the labour market was flush with vacancies.

Westpac acting chief economist Michael Gordon said perceptions about job opportunities remained the strongest aspect of the survey.

"This likely reflects the high degree of churn among existing roles, even as outright growth in employment has stalled."

However, households' future earnings expectations were unchanged at 19.3.

Gordon said this stood in contrast with the official labour market figures, which indicated that the tightness in the market was putting upward pressure on wage growth.

"Median weekly wages and salaries, probably the best measure of what workers are actually getting in hand, were up a whopping 8.8 percent over the year to June.

"The survey results may reflect a feeling among households that they've been running to stand still."

Labour market confidence rose across in seven out of 11 regions, with Wellington leading the way.

The exceptions included Northland, Taranaki/Manawatu - Whanganui, Tasman/West Coast, and Otago.

Gordon said the sharp fall in sentiment in Otago was a surprise, given that there had been plenty of reports of labour shortages in Queenstown and overseas tourism recently resumed.

Much like Westpac's recent consumer confidence survey, younger people were the most optimistic about their prospects.

"At the same time, confidence was stronger among the middle to high income brackets, while it was actually weaker for those in lower income brackets," Gordon said.

Public sector workers recorded a notable jump in confidence from 110.2 in the June quarter to 124.4.

Meanwhile, private sector worker optimism recorded a more modest 3.8-point rise.

The survey was conducted over 1-12 September, with a sample size of 1559.

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