Counting the votes in Bougainville's independence referendum, December 2019 Photo: Jeremy Miller / Bougainville Referendum Commission
There is a call for a rethink on Bougainville's quest for independence from Papua New Guinea.
An academic who has had a long involvement in Bougainville issues says both governments need to relaunch their consultations, which have been at a standstill for nearly two years.
It is almost four years since Bougainvilleans overwhelmingly supported independence in a non-binding referendum little has been achieved.
Australian National University's Department of Pacific Affairs acting head, Professor Anthony Regan, said both countries need to take a different approach.
He said it took nearly two years for talks to get underway but when views diverged, Bougainville, buoyed by the huge vote for independence, decided to wait for the MPs in the national parliament to vote on the referendum results.
"But without anything agreed between them it means the results are going to parliament, possibly late this year or possibly in the first half of next year to a yes or no vote because there are no alternative approaches that take account of the concerns of the governments on the table," he said.
"It's quite likely there will be a strong no vote if it goes straight to parliament."
PNG's Minister for Bougainville Affairs, Manasseh Makiba, announced in parliament last month that he would table the results before the end of the year.
He said before there was any vote on the document a sessional order (temporary standing order) would be put in place and it would require an absolute majority, or two thirds of all MPs to support a yes vote.
That riled Bougainville and was part of the reason the regular Joint Supervisory Body talks were delayed from last week until Monday, July 31.
Regan said if consultations were to resume an independent moderator must be brought in.
Professor Anthony Regan Photo: Supplied/ Australian National University
At the beginning of the process former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern was to be moderator but when the first meetings got delayed by various unforeseen events he was left out of planning.
Initially former Ahern was to be moderator, a post he had filled leading into the independence referendum in 2019.
But a series of unforeseen delays in meetings led to the end of that arrangement, meaning as Regan said the governments were without the help of an independent person who could help them resolve differences.
"The governments are talking about that at the moment, the possibility of getting in a moderator again, a different moderator, and it would need much more creative engagement between the two sides.
"Listening to one another and working out what is possible," he said.
Regan said the work done so far was still significant, with Bougainville emphatic about wanting to be able to join the United Nations and setting out a roadmap of independence by 2027 at the very least. However, he said that may prove not be realistic.
He said for PNG, one of the legitimate concerns is how a newly independent Bougainville would be able to pay its way, given its limited economic base.
There are also concerns that the push towards independence could lead to rushed and inappropriate deals on the reopening of the Panguna Mine or other mining projects.
