Guam Power Authority clearing trees and from powerlines after Typhoon Mawar in May 2023. Photo: Guam Power Authority
The Northern Marianas and the rest of Micronesia could see below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of 2024, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA's tropical cyclone outlook said it expects one to two typhoons, and up to four storms, for United States-affiliated Pacific Islands: the Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, CNMI, and Guam, for the balance of the year.
NOAA said overall, there is a 50 percent chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity.
The cyclone season in the south Pacific - which ended 30 April - finished with fewer cyclones than what was forecast.
A typhoon is a tropical cyclone that is accompanied by 74mph (about 119 km/h) maximum sustained winds or more; while storms are classified as systems that carry up to, or more than, 39mph (about 63 km/h)maximum sustained winds.
NOAA said the below-normal tropical cyclone activity is consistent with the expected shift from El Nino to ENSO-neutral, and then to La Nina, as supported by the latest National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostics Discussion.
"As ENSO-Neutral conditions shift to a La Nina pattern by late summer, this is likely to further result in less regional activity, similar to the 2020-2022 La Nina years," NOAA said.
"Basin-wide tropical cyclone activity typically shifts eastward in El Nino years, and westward during La Nina years."
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology declared El Nino over in mid-April, while NOAA said on 9 May that "a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month".
NOAA said a westward shift in tropical cyclone activity is predicted to keep tropical cyclone activity below-normal for the Marianas, eastern FSM and the Marshall Islands, but normal to below-normal for Palau and possibly for the western FSM.
