Mixed reactions to French PM’s announcements on New Caledonia

Analysis - France's new Prime Minister Michel Barnier's announcements Tuesday on New Caledonia, including the scrapping of a highly-sensitive electoral reform, the postponement of local elections and a French high-level group to resume political talks, has triggered a series of mixed reactions across the French Pacific archipelago's political spectrum.

On the pro-independence side, which has been highly critical of the previous French approach, there was mainly a guarded positive response.

"We remain aware of what is at stake and of the announcements made. Now we will have to judge on the actions", Emmanuel Tjibaou, who was recently elected as a New Caledonian MP within the National Assembly, said.

"These are positive announcements in so far as this is an opportunity for New Caledonia's partners to come back and sit at the table to find a political agreement", moderate PALIKA party president Jean-Pierre Djaïwe told local media.

"We welcome the French PM's announcements regarding New Caledonia" that "herald a new phase", a bipartisan delegation currently in Paris said in a communiqué.

"This Damocles' sword was preventing political dialogue and the search for consensus. Now we have more time, this will bring hope to New Caledonians and allow us to start rebuilding the country", said moderate pro-France Calédonie Ensemble party leader Philippe Gomès.

The delegation has been in Paris since last week to advocate for French funding of a post-riot "reconstruction" plan announced at €4.1 billion over a five-year period.

They particularly welcomed the forthcoming French parliamentary mission, which would be headed by Senate and National Assembly Presidents, respectively Gérard Larcher and Yaël Braun-Pivet, with the backing of experts from the Prime minister' office and the ministry of Overseas.

They also viewed the French PM's announcement to scrap the Constitutional electoral reform on New Caledonia's electoral roll for local elections as removing a "Damocles' sword" that was hanging over the resumption of political dialogue and the commitment to a long-term economic and social restoration".

The constitutional bill's endorsement by both Houses of Parliament is widely regarded as the main cause for the deadly and destructive riots that broke out in New Caledonia on 13 May 2024, which has resulted in eleven deaths, the destruction by arson and looting of over eight hundred businesses, over 20,000 job losses and financial damages reaching a staggering €2.2 billion, leaving New Caledonia's economic and social fabrics on their knees.

However, the bipartisan delegation from New Caledonia included neither pro-independence PALIKA, nor a large part of the loyalists (pro-France, anti-independence) parties.

But on the loyalists' side, the feeling was rather different with, in the background, a sense of somehow being let down by the new French government.

Bitterness on the Pro-France side

Loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf, who is also one of New Caledonia's representative MPs at the National Assembly, was immediately outright critical of Barnier's statements.

The MP was present in the hemicycle, but was seen leaving the hemicycle even before Barnier had finished his speech.

He later told the media and in a release that Barnier's statements were "disconnected from reality" and did not seem to "grasp the reality of the situation on the ground".

He also regretted that there was no financial commitment from France to address the economic and social urgency of New Caledonia's situation.

Southern Province President and Les Loyalistes party leader Backès was not impressed either. She said Barnier's speech "did not address New Caledonia's expectations" and that Barnier was not qualified to make the announcements on behalf of French President Macron.

Both Metzdorf and Backès are staunch supporters of the electoral reform, based on three successive referendums held over the past five years, all yielding results showing a rejection of New Caledonia's independence.

One of these three consultations, in December 2021, was boycotted by the pro-independence movement.

Although legally valid, It has since been contested by the pro-independence parties.

'Restore impartiality': minister

The pro-independence parties have also, since then, denounced the French state's "partiality" in moves that they said were clearly siding with the Loyalists.

During talks held in Paris between New Caledonia's bipartisan Congress delegation and newly-appointed French Overseas minister François-Noël Buffet, the latter assured New Caledonia's congress members that one of his priorities was to "restore the French State's impartiality" and "quickly restore dialogue with all of the Nouméa Accord's partners".

"This will be conducted in the respect of everyone's beliefs, of New Caledonian people's diversity and of democratic principles", Barnier said on Tuesday.

New Caledonia's pressing issues can now claim they have at least three top-notch advocates: French PM Barnier, his Overseas minister Buffet and, at the highest level, French President Macron, who also wants to bring everyone around the table some time in "November".

All subjects are intertwined

Although they may seem remote at first sight, the now-scrapped electoral reform, the postponement of local elections (now to be endorsed by French Parliament) and wider consultations on New Caledonia's political future are closely intertwined.

The electoral roll constitutional reform was one way of dealing with the contentious issue separately, instead of including it in global discussions.

There had been attempts to start those "global" discussions" as far back as 2021.

The aim was to find an agreement that would serve to produce a successor document to the ageing 1998 autonomy-loaded Nouméa Accord, 26 years after it was signed.

But the French government, despite half a dozen trips by Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin, never managed to bring together all political parties, mainly because such parties as Union Calédonienne had never agreed to sit in an inclusive format (comprising the French State, the pro-independence parties and the pro-France loyalists).

Darmanin's initial concept was then to introduce the Constitutional Reform on New Caledonia's local elections and its related conditions of eligibility, which was supposed to come into force even if, in the meantime, no wider political agreement was reached.

In doing so, he also introduced a time-constrained background for the "global" talks.

Another complicating factor is that, since late August 2024, Union Calédonienne has de facto "absorbed" the whole FLNKS during a Congress that the other two more moderate components of the platform (PALIKA and UPM) did not attend.

At the latest Congress, only attended by two of the four historic FLNKS members, hard-line Union Calédonienne and Rassemblement Démocratique Océanien (RDO), it was resolved to include more radical parties and unions mostly close to UC, in the platform and to elect CCAT leader Christian Téin as President of FLNKS.

CCAT (Field Action Coordination Cell, setup by UC) was also included in the FLNKS's new format.

Téin is currently in pre-trial detention in a prison in Mulhouse (mainland France).

He and others are being charged with masterminding the May 13 riots, under a host of other charges, all related to the general notion of organised crime.

PALIKA and UPM have since declared they did not recognise themselves in the new, enlarged FLNKS format and that they therefore did not feel committed and bound by any of the platform's future moves, statements or resolutions at least until they themselves hold their respective congress later this year.

As an entity, FLNKS is a signatory of the Nouméa Accord under a united platform.

As part of future talks, it therefore remains unclear which party or faction within the pro-independence movement will be regarded as a legitimate participant to represent the pro-independence movement.

The much-anticipated resumption of political talks including all parties at the same table would aim at arriving at a general agreement on New Caledonia's long-term political future, including on the electoral roll definition for provincial elections.

This would mean that the option of dealing with the electoral issue would now have to be part of future, more inclusive talks.

This electoral roll definition would also largely help in agreeing on the necessary conditions that make a New Caledonian "citizen" (a still undefined, but planned status), including the minimum duration (3, 5 or 10 years) of residence to qualify.

Dropping the constitutional reform process and postponing the provincial elections, seems, therefore, a way of allowing more time (at least one more year) for political stakeholders to reach a much-expected agreement that will still have to tackle the conditions of eligibility to vote at local elections before those local elections are eventually held.

The additional time granted is nevertheless perceived as positive by opponents to the constitutional approach because they would feel less pressured and no longer subject to a "forceful" approach by France.