All of New Caledonia’s political parties engaged in a video conference with French minister for Overseas Manuel Valls on Friday. 11 April 2025. Photo: Supplied / LNC
A leaked "working paper" on New Caledonia's future political status is causing concern on the local stage and has prompted a "clarification" from the French government's Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls.
Details of the document, which was supposed to remain confidential, have been widely circulated online over the past few days.
Valls said earlier the confidentiality of the document was supposed to ensure expected results of ongoing talks were not jeopardised.
However, following the leak of the document, Valls said in a release on Friday that, for the time being, it is nothing more than a "working paper".
The document results from earlier rounds of talks when Valls was in Nouméa during his previous trips in February and March 2025.
Valls is supposed to come back to New Caledonia on 29 April for another round of talks and possibly "negotiations" and more political talks are ongoing, still behind closed doors.
He denies, at this stage, that it can be regarded as a "unilateral proposal" from Paris.
The latest roundtable session was on 11 April, held remotely via a video conference between Valls in Paris and all political stakeholders (both pro-France and pro-independence parties) in Nouméa.
As it currently stands, all tendencies across the political spectrum have reaffirmed their strong and sometimes "non-negotiable" respective stances.
Parties opposed to independence, who regard New Caledonia as being part of France, have consistently maintained that the results of the latest three referendums on self-determination (held in 2018, 2020 and 2021) should be respected and reject the notion of independence.
The last referendum in December 2021 was, however, largely boycotted by the pro-independence movement and indigenous Kanak voters.
On the pro-independence side, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS, dominated by the Union Calédonienne) is announcing a "Convention" on 26 April - just three days before Valls's return - to decide on whether it should now fully engage into negotiations proper.
In a news conference last week, FLNKS had been critical of the French-suggested approach, saying it would only commit if they "see the benefits" and that the document is "patronizing".
Two other pro-independence parties - the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and the UPM (Union Progressiste en Mélanésie) - have distanced themselves from the FLNKS, which they see as too radical under Union Calédonienne's influence and dominance) and hold a more moderate view.
PALIKA held a general meeting late last week to reaffirm that, while they too were regarding the path to sovereignty as their paramount goal, they were already committed to participating in future "negotiations" since "all topics have been taken into account" (in the working document).
They are in favour of what they term an "independence association".
Carefully chosen words
In his release on Friday, Valls said the main pillars of future negotiations are articulated around the themes of "democracy and the rule of law", a "decolonisation process", the right to self-determination, a future "fundamental law" that would seal New Caledonia's future status (and would then, if locally approved, be ratified by French Parliament and later included in the French Constitution), the powers of New Caledonia's three provinces (including on tax and revenue collection matters), a future New Caledonia citizenship (and its conditions of eligibility) with the associated definition of who meets the requirements to vote at local elections.
Citizenship
On acquiring New Caledonia citizenship, a consensus seems to emerge on the minimum time of residence: it would be "10 to 15" years with other criteria such as an "exam" to ascertain the candidate's knowledge and respect of cultural "values and specificities".
Every person born in New Caledonia, children and spouses of qualified citizens, would also automatically qualify for New Caledonia's citizenship.
Power-sharing
On power-sharing, the draft also touches on the "sovereign" powers (international relations, defence, law and order, justice, currency) which would remain within the French realm, but in a stronger association for New Caledonia.
All other powers, regarded as "non-sovereign", would remain under direct control of New Caledonia as they have already been transferred, gradually, to New Caledonia, over the past 27 years, under the Nouméa Accord.
New Caledonia would also be consulted on all negotiations related to its (Pacific islands) region and would get a representation at European Union level.
Local diplomats would also be trained under France's Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs.
Under the Nouméa Accord, the training process was already initiated over ten years ago with New Caledonian representatives appointed and hosted at French embassies in the region (Fiji, New Zealand, Australia).
A local "strategic committee" would also be set up on defence matters.
However, despite long-time FLNKS demands, this would not allow for a seat at the United Nations.
In terms of currency, the present French Pacific Francs (CFP, XPF) would be abolished for a new currency that would remain pegged to the Euro, provided France's other two Pacific territories (French Polynesia, Wallis-and-Futuna - who are also using the CFP -), agree.
Reinforced provincial powers
A new proposal, in terms of reinforced provincial powers, would be to grant each of New Caledonia's three provinces (North, South and Loyalty Islands) the capacity (currently held by New Caledonia's government) to generate and collect its own taxes.
Each province would then re-distribute their collected tax revenues to the central government and municipalities.
This is also reported to be a sensitive point during the talks, since about 80 percent of New Caledonia's wealth is located in the Southern Province, which also generates over 90 percent of all of New Caledonia's tax revenues.
This is perceived as a concession to pro-France parties, who are calling for an "internal federation" model for New Caledonia, a prospect strongly opposed by pro-independence parties who are denouncing what they liken to some kind of partition for the French Pacific dependency.
In the currently discussed project, the representation at the Congress (Parliament) of New Caledonia would be revised among the three provinces to better reflect their respective weight according to demographic changes.
The representation would be re-assessed and possibly modified after each population census.
Under the proposed text, New Caledonia's government would remain based on the notion of "collegiality".
Future referendum: no more just "yes" or "no" to independence
The current working paper, on the right to self-determination, suggests that any future referendum on self-determination no longer has a specified deadline, but should take place after a "stabilisation and reconstruction" phase.
It would no longer ask the binary question of "yes" or "no" to independence and full sovereignty, but rather seek the approval of a "comprehensive project".
To activate a referendum, the approval of at least three fifths of New Caledonia's 54-seat Congress would be needed.
The Congress's current makeup, almost equally split in two between pro-France and pro-independence parties, this 3/5th threshold could only be found if there is a consensual vote beyond party lines.
Some of the FLNKS's earlier demands, like having its President Christian Téin (elected in absentia in August 2024 ) part of the talks, now seem to have been dropped.
Téin was arrested in June 2024 for alleged involvement in the May 2024 insurrectional riots that caused 14 dead (including two French gendarmes), hundreds of injured, thousands of jobless and the destruction of several hundred businesses for a total estimated damage of 2.2 billion Euros).
Four days after his arrest, Téin was transferred from New Caledonia to mainland France.
Although he is still remanded in custody pending his trial (for alleged involvement in organised criminal-related acts), his case was recently transferred from the jurisdiction of judges in Nouméa to mainland France magistrates.
Union Calédonienne President and pro-independence front man Emmanuel Tjibaou told public broadcaster NC la 1ère on Sunday he was in regular contact with Téin from his jail in Mulhouse (North-east of mainland France).
Another recent development that could also be perceived as a concession to the FLNKS is that last week, France announced the replacement of French High commissioner Louis Le Franc, France's representative and man in charge in Nouméa at the heights of the riots that started on 13 May 2024..
France's Minister of Overseas Manuel Valls (front L) greets the President of the Government of New Caledonia Alcide Ponga (R) as Senator Georges Naturel (C) looks on during his arrival for a military honours ceremony at the Croix de Lorraine in Noumea, France's Pacific territory of New Caledonia, on February 22, 2025. Photo: Delphine Mayeur / AFP
'We are facing a decisive moment': Valls
Valls said he remained hopeful that despite "all positions remaining at present still far from each other", "evolutions are still possible".
"I reaffirm the (French) State's full commitment to pursue this approach, in the spirit of the Matignon and Nouméa Accords (signed respectively in 1988 and 1998) to build together a united, appeased and prosperous New Caledonia", Valls concluded.
"We are facing a decisive moment for the future of New Caledonia, which is confronted with a particularly grave economic and social situation. Civil peace remains fragile", the release read.
The much sought-after agreement, which has been at the centre of talks since they resumed early 2025 after a three-year hiatus, is supposed to replace the Nouméa Accord from 1998.
The 1998 pact, which outlines the notion of gradual transfer of sovereign powers from France to new Caledonia, but also the notion of "common destiny", stipulates that after three referendums on self-determination resulting in a majority of "no", then the political partners are to meet and "discuss the situation thus created".
Determination, anxiety and hope, with a touch of disillusion
On all sides of the political landscape, ahead of any outcome for the crucial talks, the current atmosphere is a mix of determination, anxiety and hope, with a touch of disillusion.
The pro-independence movement's Emmanuel Tjibaou has to manage a sometimes radical base.
He told public broadcaster NC la 1ère on Sunday the main objective remained "the path to sovereignty".
Within the pro-France camp, there is also defiance towards Vall's approach and expected results.
Amongst their ranks, one lingering angst, founded or not, is to see an agreement being concluded that would not respond to their expectations of New Caledonia remaining part of France.
This worst-case scenario, in their views, would bring back sad memories of Algeria's pre-independence process, decades ago.
On 4 June 1958, in the midst of its war against Algeria's National Liberation Front (FLN), French President General De Gaulle, while on a visit to Algiers, shouted a resounding "Je vous ai compris !" to a crowd of cheering pro-France and French Algerians who were convinced at the time that their voice had been heard in favour of French Algeria.
On 19 March 1962, after years of a bloody war, the Evian Accords were signed, paving the way for Algeria's independence on 3 July.
"I had to take precautions, I had to proceed progressively and this is how we made it", De Gaulle told French daily Le Monde in 1966.
In the meantime, in an atmosphere of fear and violence, an estimated 700,000 French citizens from Algeria were "repatriated" by boat to mainland France.
As an alternative posed to French nationals at the time, FLN's slogan was "la valise ou le cercueil' (the suitcase or the coffin).
