Pacific forecasters expect busy cyclone season

Transcript

Forecasters across the Pacific are expecting the cyclone season to be slightly busier than normal.

They say warmer, drier weather is to blame.

Koro Vaka'uta looked at the forecast for the season which runs until the end of April.

The Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre is run out of the Fiji Meteorological Service and oversees a large part of the Pacific.  Its director Alipate Waqaicelua says eight to ten cyclones are forecast to emerge in the area.  Mr Waqaicelua says islands to the east of the international dateline are at higher risk.

ALIPATE WAQAICELUA:The waters that are now warming up to the east of the dateline, most of the cyclones are expected, around or east of the dateline.  It's also where the Genesis trough is where cyclones are expected to develop or spawn.  Essentially just to the northeast if Fiji around Wallis and Futuna and Samoa region and move towards south and southeast. 
 

Tongan authorities warn that the kingdom could be hit by a strong cyclone this season. Tonga Met says this year's weather conditions are similar to those that preceded cyclones in the past.  Its director 'Ofa Fa'anunu says traditional knowledge shows when severe drought conditions are experienced, enhanced tropical cyclone activity is expected.

'OFA FA'ANUNU:We have looked at sea surface temperatures and conditions of the atmosphere right now and we have compared it to seven previous seasons in the past.  From those statistics we have come up with an outlook of two to three cyclones to affect Tonga and with the possibility of even one of them being severe.

The Cook Islands Meteorological Service Director Arona Ngari says the Cook Islands will be at a heightened level of awareness, particularly towards the end of the season.

ARONA NGARI:For the southern Cook Islands probably one or two that could affect us in the latter part of summer.  We expect that the risk is slightly elevated towards more than our usual average.

Mr Fa'anunu believes the forecasts are pretty reliable.

'OFA FA'ANUNU: We used the same outlook for last year.  We had an outlook of two cyclones last year and for one to be severe and it turned out very accurate.

Mr Ngari says no matter what the forecast, the message is the same for people in the islands.

ARONA NGARI:For people to be vigilant with these warnings.  We should be able to give a warning about three days in advance and for people to heed these warnings once they come into play and one of the things we've always tried is to get to the outer islands and so far we have managed that through some of the radio upgrades as well as IT use and internet.

An anticipated El Nino system, which causes extreme dry, warm weather, never arrived, with conditions falling just below the mark for such categorising. However, all three directors say there is a chance that it could arrive belatedly, raising the chance of cyclones even more.