New report finds climate change models too simplistic

Transcript

A new report has found that climate change models which focus only on sea level rise are too simplistic and do not reflect the realities of changing weather patterns and coastal erosion.

According to a multi-agency study published in Nature Geoscience, the predicted increase in severe El Nino and La Nina events will cause more storm events, flooding and erosion in  the Pacific Ocean.

Patrick Barnard from the US Geological Survey says other studies have analysed coastal impacts at local and regional levels but this is the first to look at patterns for the whole of the Pacific.

Tebikenikora, a village in the Kiribati. Photo: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

PATRICK BARNARD: So the primary finding was that of all the 48 beaches we looked at every single region responded to either El Nino or La Nina in that there was significant beach erosion associated with one of those two modes, the end members of the El Nino southern oscillation. So they really, and these broadly represent the population centres in the central Pacific the West Coast of North America, Japan, New Zealand and Australia. So the gist of it is that during El Nino pretty much the North Pacific and Japan is impacted and then during La Nina it flips and Australia New Zealand sort of bear the brunt of the coastal impacts from larger waves and higher water levels and in the end more significant coastal erosion.

KOROI HAWKINS: The South Pacific region is experiencing one of the strongest El Ninos in the last decade or so is that something that you will be looking at as well in terms of the effects of it or what can people expect in terms of coastal erosion?

PB: Definitely moving forward we are very interested in this El Nino and to see if the impacts are consistent with the ones we have already studied. I will be interesting to see how this storm season shapes up in both hemispheres to see if it is consistent with the observations that we have made here over the last 35 years or so.

KH: And are there any real world applications at the moment for governments in terms of policies or what they are trying to do with climate change mitigation and adaptation?

PB: I think so I mean most forward looking models of coastal vulnerability only consider sea level rise they don't really look at storminess and changes in the wave climate and so there is several different applications for this research one is that we can look at the climate variability, the mode the climate is in presently for example El Nino and we can be quite and we can be quite confident which parts of the coast are going to be impacted. And then moving forward if El Ninos and La Ninas become more extreme as some models suggest we have to look at the whole and even so we have to look at the whole picture it is not just sea level rise it is the combination of sea level rise and these storms whether they be fueled by El Nino La Nina or not. That impact coasts in concert with sea level rise. And those are the kinds of impacts that really need to be considered in Policy and coastal management.