Transcript
WALTER ZWEIFEL: The poll was done with almost 2,700 people but among them only about 2100 are allowed to vote in the referendum because of the restrictions to long-term residents. The poll was carried out in three phases - over four months - and it found that 69 percent said they would vote against independence. Interestingly, the percentage of voters opposing independence went up by 11 percent over the four-month period. The percentage of those saying yes to independence also went up - from 15 to 20 percent. It also shows that the number of undecided voters has shrunk to just 5 percent. 6 percent declined to answer.
DON WISEMAN: Does this suggest that people have a strong interest in the referendum?
WZ: The poll found that 86 percent said they would vote. Breaking down the number, the poll found that in the mainly Kanak Loyalty Island province a quarter of voters said they would not go to the polls. 91 percent of older voters, that is those over 60, said they would vote but among new voters the figure is below 80 percent. The call by the Labour Party to ignore the referendum appears to have had no traction. The projected turnout is by the way roughly in line with what was observed in similar referendums in Scotland and Quebec.
DW: So judging by this poll is independence out of the question?
WZ: The Noumea Accord provides for two more referendums, should the electorate say no to independence in November. Going on the responses given in the polls now, the results can expected to be repeated. However, digging a little bit deeper, the poll found that 36 percent said why not have independence at some stage, just not now. This leaves just 36 percent who are against independence no matter what. The same query found that just 9 percent think New Caledonia should be independent as it is while ten percent say they will vote for independence but they disagree with what the pro-independence leaders envisage.
DW: What does this mean for the time after the vote?
WZ: It is certainly going to raise further questions and new accommodation will need to be found. It appears that the decolonisation wanted in the 70s and 80s will fail and leave New Caledonia as a French colony in the sense that New Caledonia for example won't become a UN member. It can also be noted that support for New Caledonia becoming independent is weak. No French party has come out in favour and regional governments are silent, which can be taken as tacit support for the status quo. At the same time, there is no call whatsoever to rescind any of the powers given to New Caledonia and to strengthen the French presence in New Caledonia.
