It rains a lot here in New Zealand. A lot.
Between 600-1600mm falls here every year. For context, Australia gets around 400mm annually, although a more apt comparison might be with the United Kingdom, which records around 900mm every year.
Westerly winds scream in from the roaring forties, hit our high mountain chain and then rain falls, in vast quantities, sometimes very quickly.
Often - too often - rain means floods. Flooding is the most frequent natural disaster in this country. In the last dozen years, insurers have paid out more than $1 billion to people whose property and lives have been affected by flooding. Our complex and extensive river system and geography means New Zealand is extremely vulnerable. The likelihood of more extreme weather events is rising due to climate change. Preparation, planning and foreknowledge are key.
Dr Celine Cattoën-Gilbert is a hydrological forecasting scientist at NIWA and she leads a team at work on a national river flow forecasting tool that hopes to ‘support and strengthen our planning for and response to extreme rainfall events.’
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The project monitors relative flow values in many of our ungauged rivers and then compares them with more than four decades of climate records. The result is a series of video animations that it is hoped will make it possible to predict river levels on a national scale up to 48 hours into the future.
The goal is greater public safety and the animations will be available to anyone: farmers, city dwellers, trampers and fishers as well as local government.
The national river flow forecasting tool project is still at proof-of-concept stage and Dr Cattoën-Gilbert and her team have lots of work to do before it can be used by the public. While you’re waiting, if you’re worried about the level of your nearby river, you can check weather sites like NIWA or Metservice, go to local government websites and listen to your radio for weather warnings.
