The first prime minister who had to strike a deal with Winston Peters to form a government under MMP says he expects a government to form after election day without much fuss.
But if it does not, it would be at least a month-and-a-half before a second election could take place, in addition to however long it takes for politicians to realise their negotiations are going nowhere, an expert says.
National has warned there could be a second election needed if forming a coalition with both ACT and New Zealand First proves too difficult. There is also the possibility of a hung parliament, with the polls tightening and Labour convinced - and not unreasonably - their support is being undercounted.
Back in 1996, Jim Bolger formed the country's first MMP government with NZ First, despite a fractious relationship. He told Checkpoint he did not expect Peters to hold up the formation of a new government after the results are announced on Saturday night.
"I expect the leaders of the parties who are the majority after next Saturday's election to form the government, and no particular reason why they won't," he said.
"You talk to people and I don't think the conditions are very difficult to form a deal. I mean, clearly people want a change in government."
In 1996 it took Bolger and Peters two months of negotiations to form a coalition. Bolger had previously fired Peters from Cabinet, when the latter was a National MP prior to forming NZ First. The coalition fell apart in 1998 after Jenny Shipley rolled Bolger, with NZ First splintering and its remaining MPs going into opposition.
Jim Bolger and Winston Peters at the head of the first MMP coalition government Photo: Supplied
"Winston is smart, he's experienced and he will test the parameters of the discussion," Bolger said. "I mean, the fact is he stayed with the team we put together, he never caused it to fall apart. So we took a while to bring the coalition together, but once we were together, there were no particular issues… It wasn't Winston Peters who had destroyed the coalition government he was in with me at all. It was others who took that honour upon themselves."
Bolger likened discussions between parties to those which went on in each party's own caucus.
"He'll test policy ideas or thinking because he might have a slightly different one, and I don't have any objection to that. I think that's totally legit to test political ideas. You're bringing three parties together we're talking about now and we'll all have nuances and subtleties and what they mean and what they don't mean, and what it might mean for the public at large.
"I mean, that's inevitable. It happens in every caucus every week, so nothing to be frightened of, but to be aware that you need to have your arguments well-mustered, you need to have a clear idea as to what you intend to do and be able to explain that clearly - both to Winston… but also to the caucus, but much more importantly to the country at large."
What if a new election is needed?
University of Otago law professor Andrew Geddis, also appearing on Checkpoint, said there was no limit to how long post-election negotiations could continue.
"There is a requirement that Parliament meets six weeks after the election results are announced, but you can have Parliament meet without a government having formed, and carry on thereafter.
"So the short answer is it'll take as long as it takes for them to talk, and as long as the public will stomach the ongoing uncertainty. The biggest constraint here is kind of political culture - people want a government, that's what's likely to start put a time limit on it."
The governor-general was not able to intervene, he explained, simply having to wait until an arrangement had been made.
Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
"If this process carries on and the negotiations just don't appear to be working, the actual require the actual way a new election is held is that the caretaker prime minister - the person who remains in office, Chris Hipkins, running the country on a day-to-day basis, just basically keeping the lights on keeping the power going - he is one who actually goes to the governor-general and says 'this isn't going to work, there needs to be a new election'.
"But that caretaker prime minister… could only do it if a majority of MPs, parties with a majority, say there needs to be a new election. He can't do it off his own bat. He can only reflect the will of Parliament."
If it was deemed a new election was required, it could not happen right away, Geddis said.
"An election involves literally tens of thousands of people being hired to run the thing, thousands of polling stations around the country - all of those would have to be found, they would have to be staffed, all that machinery would have to be able to be put in place.
"Back in 2002, which is the last time we had a kind of unscheduled election, that happened very quickly. There was a 46-day gap between… the election date being announced, and the actual election - it would be hard to see how you could do it any quicker than that. So at least you know, a month-and-a-half before you get to vote."
New Zealand has never had a truly hung parliament, he said.
"Things have just got a little bit more uncertain and fractious because the parties that look like they might have to do a deal are sort of arguing with each other, but this is MMP. This is how it works."
