Main image Photo: RNZ
"Making sure there's good glue, actually making sure we've got strong stable relationships" - Christopher Luxon
The battle for the hearts, minds and votes of New Zealanders is over - nearly - with the preliminary results on Saturday putting National in a position to form the next government and Labour consigned to the opposition benches.
National's exact path to government is not fully clear, and depends on the final vote count. Even so, it's far preferable to the position Labour's in, having to put on a brave face despite anger and recriminations at the result.
Based on preliminary count, National could go ahead with their preferred option - a two-party coalition with ACT - but with a razor-thin majority the option of including New Zealand First and leader Winston Peters is very much in play.
National's leader Christopher Luxon spoke the day after the election about being aligned with ACT, and having good chemistry with its leader David Seymour, using language like "mergers and acquisitions", and later talking about taking on a more managerial chief executive role than focusing on a particular portfolio.
Seymour told RNZ political reporter Anneke Smith on election night that New Zealand faced many problems, but political stability was needed. He said ACT and National had similar beliefs around reducing government expenditure - so there's certainly some common ground.
"The recent forecasts for economic growth placed New Zealand as one of the slowest-growing economies in the world. That's an immediate problem but it's also a long-term trend that needs to be addressed."
Read more:
- Political panel: 'Mergers and acquisitions' in limboland
- Comment: Labour out, National in – either way, neoliberalism wins again
- New Green MPs, co-leaders speak at Parliament
- Election campaign fight for your eyeballs: Parties' social media use
- Analysis: Luxon gets the job as PM - and deal-making headache
- Labour's caucus meeting 'pretty rough'- Hipkins
For now, the political world remains in hiatus. National has a packed 100-day plan but can't progress it without securing government.
This means waiting on special votes - those done out of one's electorate, or enrolled on election day. They make up about 20 percent of the total vote and traditionally lean slightly more to the left - but that's not guaranteed and they're unlikely to mean a dramatic shift in the overall trend.
In particular this could affect the Māori seats. Te Pāti Māori swept up four of the seats on the initial vote, and there are two currently held by Labour they could yet claim on specials.
The party's co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer told Morning Report host Ingrid Hipkiss it came down in part to a lack of vision from other parties.
"We knew what we were there to do, we're very set in our sights - we always said we wanted to grow the movement - and I guess the other part of it is because we're the humble-broke party, we ... were able to mobilise differently."
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Photo: RNZ / Katie Scotcher
One of the party's new MPs, Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, won the seat of Hauraki-Waikato off long-term Labour incumbent Nanaia Mahuta. At 21, Maipi-Clarke is one of the youngest elected in 150 years. Mahuta said it was always going to be a close contest.
A quirk of the MMP system is if a party wins more electorates than it would awarded through its party vote, extra seats are simply added to Parliament - known as "overhang" seats. The results as they stand leave Te Pāti Māori with one overhang seat, and there's another seat expected to go to National after the Port Waikato by-election.
But special votes could also change the calculation: more electorate wins could mean a bigger overhang for Te Pāti Māori, while a sizeable increase in their share of party votes could instead tilt the Parliament back towards 120 seats - meaning fewer for other parties.
However it shakes out, the special votes could yet whittle away National and ACT's slim majority, leaving them in need of New Zealand First to form a government. Having mutually ruled out working with Labour, NZ First's leader Winston Peters has less leverage than in the past - but he suggested there was still plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet.
"We've got to talk to my colleagues first, and then when we've decided what we're going to do and what we're doing it with we'll all let you know," Peters said the day after the election.
Winston Peters on election night Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
"They didn't last night see - the New Zealand people, nor in this campaign - just what an economic and social crisis this country's in ... tomorrow they'll wake up and start seeing what they didn't know and when they do some of the promises made during this campaign won't be worth confetti."
National and ACT will be doing what negotiations they can ahead of the special votes - due out on 3 November, but again there's only so much they can do before the knowing the exact shape of the next Parliament - and Peters' level of involvement.
On the other side, Labour has the daunting task of managing the transition out of government, while licking its own wounds.
Surrounded by his MPs, Chris Hipkins told reporters after a lengthy caucus meeting on Tuesday afternoon he would be remaining as leader - at least for now.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins, surrounded by his colleagues, heads into the caucus meeting on Tuesday. Photo: RNZ / Russell Palmer
There will be recriminations, anger at the result, and questions about the leadership - but the caucus will try to put on a brave face.
The departures have already started, with former leader and Cabinet minister Andrew Little announcing he would quit politics - and there may be more to come.
Parliamentary life also carries on - with the defeated MPs farewelled by their remaining colleagues, while new MPs step through the door, readying themselves for the next chapter.
In this week's Focus on Politics, Political Editor Jane Patterson gets the lay of the land as the nation waits on the final election results.
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