A leading Covid-19 modeller is pessimistic about the easing of restrictions, and says cases could skyrocket past 300 a day this month as the government plans to relax restrictions in Auckland.
Cabinet has agreed, in principal, to move Auckland to alert level 3 step 2, at 11.59pm on Tuesday 9 November.
It means shops, libraries and museums can reopen with mask-wearing and social distancing, and the outdoor gathering limit will be increased to 25.
Covid-19 modeller Professor Shaun Hendy told Morning Report it's too much - too soon.
"What's been going on so far is that the vaccination program has been going really well, and we're definitely seeing the impacts of that but we're relaxing, really, ahead of seeing any of those gains, really, in the numbers.
"I think a lot of us who are working in the modelling would like to see the case numbers declining before we relax and rather than relaxing and letting case numbers go even higher."
Hendy said once case numbers get too high it's going to be very difficult to bring the virus back under control.
On top of that health authorities are yet to see the effect of letting Auckland students return to school last week, or a steady decline in case numbers.
"We're increasing that r number with relaxing restrictions and trying to bring it down with vaccinations at the same time, leaving it at about the same magnitude, which just means we're going to continue to see increase in case numbers."
He said if restrictions had stay the same he would have expected to see the outbreak peak at 200 to 300 cases per day, but that won't happen with them easing.
"With these relaxations we'd expect things to go even higher, and for those numbers to persist through the Christmas period, and into next year."
Hendy acknowledged it is difficult in lockdown, having spent the last three months in Auckland himself, but said easing restrictions early means they will stay in place for longer.
It also puts Māori communities at risk.
"A number of experts have been calling really all year for programs that that would be targeted for Māori by Māori, and that hasn't happened that's left Māori vaccination rates lagging.
"That does put Māori in a difficult position now as we relax, with vaccination rates low in Māori communities, it does put those communities at higher risk. That's essentially what we're trading off here."
