13 Jun 2024

Loss of momentum in housing market

5:18 am on 13 June 2024
houses, aerial view, real estate, property, housing, business

Photo: Unsplash / Tom Rumble

The property market's recovery is fading as prices start falling in a growing number of places.

Property research firm CoreLogic's quarterly dissection of suburban prices in major centres showed prices in nearly a quarter have fallen at least one percent in the three months ended June.

Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the gain in house values over the past year had been driven by a strong labour market underpinning household finances and increased demand caused by immigration, but that was unravelling.

"The more recent loss of momentum tends to reflect continued affordability pressures and high mortgage rates, the rise in listings on the market, and a turning point for unemployment."

The report showed 221 suburbs of the 938 analysed had a drop of at least 1 percent for the June quarter, with 10 falling by 5 percent or more.

Conversely there were price rises of at least 1 percent in 253 districts and eight areas rising by 5 percent or more since March.

Davidson said the price falls were spread across affluent and cheaper areas.

Annually most areas were still modestly higher, but the upward momentum had lost steam in recent months.

Suburban ups and downs

Prices in nearly half of Auckland's suburban areas had fallen over the past three months, while 25 had gained, with Herne Bay the most expensive with a median price of $3.4 million, but Auckland Central was the most affordable at $540,000.

Generally, prices in South Auckland managed modest quarterly gains, while central and eastern areas, and the North Shore were softer.

Most suburbs in Hamilton were trading above last year's levels, but that has slowed in the past quarter, while in Tauranga the number of areas gaining in price was offset by the number falling.

For the capital, Wellington, some suburbs have notched double digit gains over the past year, but as elsewhere that had eased with close to a third of suburbs dipping in the past quarter.

Christchurch remained a standout with all of its suburbs analysed showing price rises over the year, although the pace of growth looked to have slowed.

Similarly, Dunedin had notched value gains in all suburbs in the past 12 months, with nearly a fifth gaining at least 5 percent, but growth has also slowed with a similar proportion lower since March.

Davidson saw little that would change the pace and direction of the market in the near term.

"Tax cuts and looser LVR (loan to value ratios) rules may not boost activity or prices very much in an environment where mortgage rates remain high, although the removal of first home grants and the introduction of DTI (debt to income) limits might not necessarily undermine the market greatly either."

"All in all, the latest suburb-level figures confirm the market's recent loss of momentum, and 2024 remains on track to be a pretty subdued year," he said.

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