Photo: RNZ
Fewer existing homeowners are moving to new properties - and part of that may be because they are stuck in a sales chain, waiting for places to sell, Corelogic says.
It has released its latest housing chart pack, which shows that while sales volumes lifted 1.6 percent in August compared to the same time a year ago, they are still around 15 percent below the 10-year average.
Its data showed that sales to relocating owner-occupiers were particularly weak, at 13.6 percent of the market.
Property economist Kelvin Davidson said there could be some "catch-up" to happen there.
"We haven't seen a lot of activity from them lately, but life has still happened in the past two or three years - households expanding, people splitting up - these things are always going on."
He said falling mortgage rates would help that group.
"If financing restrictions ease a bit and housing chains speed up a bit - a lot of people are selling before they buy but if it takes too long to sell, you don't buy either."
He said overall Corelogic expected slow growth in prices and activity, but the level of turnover could remain below the "normal" level of about 90,000 transactions a year for a couple of years.
The number of listings available for sale was up 13 percent year-on-year, to the highest September level in at least six years.
In Wellington, Bay of Plenty, Auckland, and Otago, total stock rose by 20 percent to 25 percent.
Property values were up 0.7 percent year-on-year but that was only due to growth at the end of last year and early this year. Over the three months to August, values were down 2.2 percent.
Davidson said falling interest rates would help demand. About 65 percent of the country's mortgages by value will refix on to a new mortgage rate over the next 12 months.
But he said there would still be concerns about job security for many buyers.
"If you've lost your job or seen a friend or neighbour lose their job, you're probably not going to want to rush out and trade property.
"Those who still feel confident about their jobs and can get the finance are in a position to take their time and secure a deal in their favour. This includes first-home buyers at present, whereas mortgaged investors are still a little more circumspect."
Davidson said there were indications some smaller investors were re-entering the market but the "top up" between what they would get from rent and their mortgage payments was still large.
Davidson said the market was likely to remain soft for some time to come, but that would allow for a realignment after a tumultuous few years.
