Photo: Cosmo Kentish-Barnes
Bird flu will be a tough blow to affected farmers and potentially their region, but so far does not look to be a significant threat to the wider New Zealand economy.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said although the number of chickens that had to be culled had doubled to 80,000 and exports had been halted, which was challenging, the sector was not a key driver of New Zealand exports.
"The fact we've had this strain come through is undoubtedly bad news, but it could have been worse," he said. "It's not the prevalent strain everyone is worried about more widely, globally.
"But at a time when we had been hoping to see better outcomes generally across the primary sector, these challenges do put us on a bit more of the back foot."
Olsen said the fact it was identified and addressed quickly with a plan to eradicate it should increase confidence in New Zealand exports.
"I would hope people would look at what we are doing and see we are making a pretty reasonable and comprehensive effort going forward."
He said New Zealand's biosecurity and food safety systems were highly regarded. "I don't think this bird flu outbreak should change that, it is limited at this stage."
The poultry flock numbered more than 25 million, so the current number being culled was about 0.3 percent, he said.
"It's not huge but what we also highlighted last year when was had the big concern about egg production and how eggs skyrocketed in price… It might not be a big national trend but there is the potential for it to have a slightly more localized or regional economic trend… there's the potential for more direct economic concern in the likes of Otago."
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley agreed the number of birds that had to be culled was still small.
"The issue is the containment and the ability to keep it from spreading. If it starts to spread that's where the impact can be a bit larger."
The M. bovis eradication was a fairly substantial programme in a larger industry that did not have a clear impact on national economic figures, he said.
"Although it undoubtedly would have had some impact on the availability of New Zealand meat at that time. In the chicken and egg market, which is ultimately what we are talking about, it is a lot more domestic focused than hitting export earnings or potentially impacting on our reputation as a food exporter as well.
"Any sort of flow-on impact from that should be relatively light. I think the key thing is at this stage it's too early to tell. If it gets contained very quickly, there's very limited impact at all."
