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- Economy likely returned to growth in the final quarter of last year
- Dairy, meat and retail offset weakness elsewhere
- Greenshoots are emerging, with an improving outlook
The economy likely crawled back out of recession at the end of last year, after suffering one of its worst six-month periods in more than 30 years.
Major bank economists expected gross domestic product (GDP) - a broad measure of economic growth - to grow by about 0.3 percent in the final three months of 2024.
It followed a 1 percent contraction in the September quarter, and 1.1 percent fall in the June quarter, which saw the economy plunge into a deep recession.
Kiwibank said the muted recovery reflected ongoing weakness in the economy.
"Some of the areas that we're seeing greenshoots in would be coming through in the retail trade and accommodation space," Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado said.
She said the December quarter also saw a marked shift in consumer appetite with lower interest rates, with the rise in retail spending also likely to flow through to other areas such as arts and recreation.
The busy tourism season would also help the transport sector, Delgado said.
ASB economists pencilled in 0.3 percent growth, saying the economy would likely be "limping out of the deep mid-2024 slowdown".
"This is on par with slowing population growth with the economy flatlining on a per-capita basis," its economists Wesley Tanuvasa and Mark Smith said.
Watch for data revisions, volatility in numbers
Last time Stats NZ released GDP data, it included significant revisions to historical data - and economists have warned to expect more revisions this time.
Westpac forecast a 0.5 percent rise in GDP, which it said was "entirely due to issues that we have identified with the seasonal adjustment of the data".
"Our sector-by-sector forecasts suggest effectively zero growth in activity over the quarter, as does our GDP nowcast model," senior economist Michael Gordon said.
"As a result, [the] figures will need to be read with caution. Revisions to recent history could come into play as well," he said.
Delgado said more volatility and revisions in the data were possible.
"I know since Covid there's been a bit of difficulty in really calculating the seasonality of data which has led to these revisions in the past," she said.
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