Despite the latest cold blast most of New Zealand is in for an early summer with temperatures expected to exceed 30°C in some parts of the country this month.
People cooling down from the heat last summer in Wellington. Photo: RNZ / Rebekah Parsons-King
Niwa has released its three month outlook and it's expected to be warm and dry for most parts of the country, despite rain and gales in parts of the country this weekend.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said above average or near average temperatures are expected over the next three months with some warm summer-like spells this month.
There were dryer than normal weather patterns across the country in September and October and that is expected to continue with normal to below normal rainfall expected for the whole of the North Island and the top and east coast of the South Island for the next three months.
Seasonal Climate Outlook, Nov-Jan: drier, warmer...
— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) November 1, 2018
-Rainfall below normal or near normal for most
-Temperatures above average or near average ️
-Warmer than average ocean temps
-Soil moisture + river flows below normal or near normal.
-On the cusp of El Niño conditions. pic.twitter.com/wdIVqhTpPx
The West Coast of the South Island is tipped to have quite a bit of rainfall in the coming weeks, but for the season as a whole it could also go through some long dry periods, Mr Noll said.
Higher than normal temperatures and a lack of rainfall would dry out the soil which would hit farmers and it could create a fire risk, he warned.
Mr Noll said warmer sea temperatures are also likely, and the temperature has already warmed up around New Zealand since the end of October with the trend likely to continue this month. Warmer sea temperatures will also influence air temperatures for the first month of summer, Mr Noll said.
New Zealand is on the cusp of an El Niño weather pattern and there is an 88 percent chance of New Zealand getting an El Niño over the next three months.
There has been less wind than average over the last couple of months, but gustier winds are likely over the next couple of months, Mr Noll said.
There are a lot of strong westerly winds forecast for November, he said.
