Week In Politics: Meka Whaitiri - why did she do it?

Analysis - Meka Whaitiri announced her defection to Te Pati Māori on Wednesday and at the end of the week it still wasn't clear why she had done it.

"Whaitiri ... offered little explanation of her decision to quit Labour, referring instead to a commitment to Maori political activism," RNZ reported.

"Speaking to reporters afterwards she offered hardly more insight to her decision."

The report quoted Whaitiri: "It's my calling. It's who I am as a Māori, proudly so ... for me it's coming home."

Whaitiri has held Ikaroa-Rāwhiti since 2013, a Māori electorate that stretches down the east cost of the North Island. It has always been a Labour seat.

She was a minister outside cabinet, holding minor portfolios which were immediately stripped from her.

Labour's caucus was as mystified as the media.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, who was on his way to London when the story broke, was blindsided, as were Labour's MPs. He tried to call her, she didn't pick up.

She hadn't spoken to any of her colleagues, and there had been no indications of what was coming.

"In the way she has executed her decision to jump ship to Te Pati Māori, Meka Whaitiri has treated her former party pretty shabbily," said the Herald's political editor Claire Trevett.

"Her announcement left big questions. The biggest was why? Was she running to something, or away from something? What prompted her decision?

"Was it disgruntlement at her stalled progress in the Labour ranks and hopes of a better fate elsewhere, or was it principle? If it was the latter, what principle?"

Newshub's political editor Jenna Lynch said Whaitiri hadn't outlined any Labour policy position she didn't agree with.

"In the absence of that, this looks like a self-interested publicity stunt going behind her party's back," Lynch said.

"The prime minister has every right to be furious. A (now former) minister is refusing to take his calls before launching a missile his way and defecting to another party. That's utterly unforgivable. But it sounds like he's shrugging it off."

Political commentator Bryce Edwards told Newshub's AM Show he had never seen a move quite like it.

"As far as I'm concerned this has been incredibly farcical," he said.

"New Zealand has a history of politicians leaving governments and switching parties ... and it's always been for very principled reasons after a long time when these politicians have tried to change their party from within and they've departed giving principled and honourable reasons."

Edwards said this had been totally lacking in Whaitiri's case.

"I don't think she has been honourable in this situation. To me, this all looks like personal ambition, gripes, personal vanity, and really about the fact that she hasn't received the career progression that she wanted under this current government."

Some of the implications of Whaitiri's defection are clear, others are not.

It has obviously given the party a big publicity boost and momentum going forward.

It has a much better chance of winning the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate in October, although that's far from a certainty.

It's bad for Labour, a big distraction that has given opposition parties another chance to say the government is a shambles and, as Newshub's Lynch put it, "any day they're not talking about bread and butter between now and October 14 is a bad day".

If Whaitiri retains Ikaroa-Rāwhiti the party could have at least three seats (it has two at present) and there's a greater chance of it being the kingmaker if the election result is very close.

The Māori Party is taking it for granted that Whaitiri will retain her seat.

Party president John Tamihere was reported to have said he would bet his house on it.

Others weren't so sure. "Don't assume Meka Whaitiri will bring Ikaroa-Rāwhiti to Te Pati Māori," the headline on Stuff's report said.

"The contest for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti has become much more interesting thanks to Whaitiri's surprise turn but it's far from certain whether she will be able to bring many voters from Labour to Te Pati Māori," reporter Glenn McConnell said.

"The fact is, the voters of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti have never chosen to elect Te Pati Māori - even during the heated foreshore and seabed debate."

Mcconnell said the electorate faced many problems including recovering from the cyclone, the cost of living and workforce pressures.

"While the heartfelt korero from Whaitiri revealed more about her as a person, she didn't talk about her ideas or solutions."

Labour handled it the only way it could, with Acting Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni saying she and her colleagues were sorry it had happened, didn't know why, and the party was moving on.

Although Whaitiri said in her announcement "this morning I have officially notified the Speaker that I have resigned from the Labour Party and am joining Te Pati Māori", that turned out not to be the case.

A few hours later Speaker Adrian Rurawhe told Parliament he had not received a letter to that effect, RNZ reported, and Whaitiri was therefore not affected by the waka-jumping law which would force her to give up her seat.

Rurawhe said he would treat her as an independent MP.

"Regardless of the way that the Honourable Meka Whaitiri has advised both the public, the Labour Party or anyone else about anything she's doing, she has not notified me," he said.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon offered the usual comment about the government "falling apart" and then, on Morning Report, said Labour and Te Pati Māori were "one entity" despite Whaitiri defecting from one to the other.

"There's a Labour, Greens, Te Pati Māori bloc that's coming together ... and as you're seeing here, obviously things are pretty party fluid with people moving from the Labour Party to Te Pati Māori."

It's a line that's likely to be heard more and more as the election approaches, because National wants to show the alternative to a National/ACT government would be a three-way left-wing coalition.

As for the rest of the week, it was tax, tax and more tax.

National's deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis kicked it off at her party's Northern Region Conference, reported by the Herald.

"Labour cooking up 'secret' capital gains tax", the headline said.

Willis said Labour had always wanted a capital gains tax.

"They still want one and they are more determined than ever to impose one," she told party delegates.

"The only thing they haven't finalised yet is its new name and how they'll spin it. The prime minister must rule it out."

Willis called on the government to "come clean ... New Zealanders deserve to know what's been discussed and why the government is being so secretive about their plans".

She repeated the "come clean" line in Parliament when it returned this week from the Easter recess.

It's a time-worn tactic and the aim is to create confusion about the government's intentions while giving the impression it's up to something it doesn't want to talk about.

It worked with Jacinda Ardern, who wanted to bring in a CGT but had to ditch it and say it wouldn't happen under her watch.

Before that it worked for Labour, when its claim that National had a secret plan to raise the pension age forced John Key to say it wouldn't be raised while he was prime minister.

Hipkins last week gave a pretty clear picture of what the government is up to when he said there would be no capital gains tax, wealth tax or any other significant tax changes before the election. Labour's tax policy for the next term would be clearly set out well ahead of the election.

Something he's going to have to be very careful about is that it's explained so clearly, preferably in words of one syllable, that it can't be misinterpreted to mean Labour is going to tax everything.

And Labour is going to have to do something, now the IRD report it commissioned, which was released last week, showed most people pay tax at a much higher level than the wealthiest families.

"Labour's dilemma is acute," said Vernon Small, until recently an advisor to Revenue Minister David Parker and now a Stuff columnist.

"It could respond with some kind of tax on wealthier Kiwis, and try to ride out the inevitable electoral storm.

"Or it could take the moral low road and shrug off the clear unfairness, to the disappointment of many supporters."

Small considered National has a problem with tax policy as well, saying tax on middle income earners could not be cut sufficiently to make much of an impact on the disparity.

And the Herald's John Roughan recalled former prime minister David Lange's reaction when he was asked at a press conference why he had dismissed the prospect of a capital gains tax: "He boomed 'because a capital gains tax is something you propose if you plan to lose the next election and the 20 elections thereafter'."

New Zealand is an outlier when it comes to a capital gains tax. Most other developed countries have it - Australia since 1985 - but here it is so intensely politically fraught that parties are afraid of it.

When the Tax Working Group recommended it in 2019, RNZ published an article: 'Capital gains tax: New Zealand is joining the modern world'. It still applies, it's well worth reading, and it puts some sense into what is often a senseless debate in New Zealand.

*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.