Donald Trump. Photo: JIM WATSON
As the world digests the impacts of Donald Trump's second election victory, some people have started to ask what it might mean for New Zealand.
Commentators say there are a few clear ways our economy - and household finances - could be affected.
Cheaper goods (sometimes)
Trump has talked about tariffs across the board on imports, but particularly on Chinese imports.
While that may be a concern for our exporters - the US is the second-largest export market for New Zealand after China - New Zealand consumers could see some impacts, too.
Kelly Eckhold, chief economist at Westpac, said there was still uncertainty about the extent to which Trump would follow through on some of the more "hyperbolic" things he had said.
"To the extent to which he gets involved with tariffs and trade restrictions, it's likely China will respond with trying to direct its manufactured experts elsewhere through the world and one place they could be directed is here. We might get some cheaper manufactured goods, such as cars."
Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said that was not something to wish for, though, because the US economy has helped offset a downturn in China for New Zealand exporters. But he said there was time for New Zealand businesses such as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare or wine and beef exporters to come up with strategies to cope with tariffs.
Oil
Eckhold said Trump had made it clear he intended to be less supportive of Ukraine.
"It's possible that Ukraine could be forced into some sort of ceasefire with Russia."
He said that could come with a de-escalation of the significant US sanctions on Russia, which had affected its oil industry.
"It has been harder for oil to get to market in the last few years. If it was easier to get into the market it could put downward pressure on oil and petrol prices."
Eckhold cautioned that interest rate movements could blunt some of that impact.
Alongside pulling support for Ukraine, Trump has threatened in the past to leave NATO.
Eaqub said WTO and NATO gave legitimacy for New Zealand to participate in global discussions. If the US did not support those organisations, it would be more difficult.
"But a lot of other countries will be feeling the same way New Zealand is feeling and it gives us the ability to engage with other countries with a similar philosophy."
Dollar
Eckhold said US interest rates were likely to be higher than would otherwise be the case and that would have an impact on longer-term interest rates here, and the dollar.
"There is a risk the New Zealand dollar is weaker than would otherwise be the case because the US dollar is likely to be stronger across the board."
Inflation
Global inflation is likely to be higher than otherwise, if Trump goes ahead with policies of tax cuts and spending increases, as well as immigration cuts.
"A change in the mix of financial conditions would have inflation implications," Eckhold said. "One of the things we have been lucky with is the exchange rate has been pretty stable and we haven't had any imported inflation from exchange rate weakness. That could change, and instead of disinflation from imported goods there could be immolation coming through."
Eaqub said more borrowing and spending in the US was likely to mean higher fixed mortgage rates in New Zealand. "Tax cuts and borrowing and spending means debt growing… because the US is kind of the global reference point for interest rates that risk-free rate goes up and it makes it more expensive for all of us. But I'd say it's at the margin - interest rates have already been increasing over the last little while as markets realized their expectations of aggressive rate cuts were overdone anyway."
Markets
Trump's more expansive fiscal policy and support for US businesses is likely to boost US equity markets.
"People's KiwiSaver is probably going to get a nice boost at least for a while out of that," Eckhold said.
Eaqub said the S&P500 did not show a clear pattern of one party being better than the other for the market.
"While government policy matters for the economy and financial markets, economic and business conditions matter a lot more for market performance."
At KiwiSaver provider Kernel, founder Dean Anderson said there had been a surge in Trump Media and Tesla stocks, on the back of the win.
"But don't let FOMO (fear of missing out) take over, there will be a lot of volatility in the short term as investors are punting on emotion and speculation.
"Over the medium term, the question of tariffs and taxes will weigh more heavily, as US bond yields have actually continued to rise, as interest rates may need to remain higher if deficits continue to grow and inflation remains elevated.
"No one has a crystal ball - the best decision an investor can make is to take emotion out of the equation, keep invested based on their objectives, and let time do its thing."
