A photo of a solar flare from the sun taken in 2010. Photo: NASA/ Goddard Space Flight Centre/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
An official plan for what to do if space weather hits New Zealand, and damages critical power and communications infrastructure, has been unveiled by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).
Space weather refers to events beyond Earth's atmosphere. The primary source is the sun, with disturbances coming in the form of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and magnetic storms.
Scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel announced in mid-October that the 11-yearly peak in the sun's activity known as the solar maximum was well under way, which increased the chance of solar flares.
While the flares do not pose a direct risk to human health, they can mess with electricity production, communication and navigation equipment crucial to society.
NEMA director for civil emergency management John Price said in the foreword for the plan that space weather has always existed, but today's reliance on satellites and electricity had increased the risk.
"A significant space weather event will disrupt critical infrastructure and essential services, preventing communities from accessing essential goods, and potentially impacting the ability for society to function as we know it. "
NEMA would be the lead agency for the response, but other government agencies could be pulled in to support. This could be far-ranging and include organisations like the Ministry of Health, Airways New Zealand, the Defence Force and Maritime New Zealand.
NEMA's plan goes over the phases of response to space weather, who would be involved in them, and how to communicate to the public if it becomes clear that space weather will affect New Zealand.
It says there are risks across infrastructure and society, and expects the electricity grid, satellite communications and cellular networks to be disrupted. AM radio is expected to remain operational throughout, but service will be degraded.
The plan also notes social impacts. It says right now public awareness of the threat from space weather is low, and there could be increased crime and disorder, health impacts due to inability to heat and cool homes, and public health issues around food spoilage and access to clean drinking water.
New Zealand does not have capacity to forecast space weather events, but the National Monitoring Alerting and Reporting Centre gets input from international centres in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia. Those centres will provide advance warning for any impacts. Depending on the size of the event, New Zealand could get more or less warning before it hits.
The response plan has eight phases, going right through from operational readiness in case space weather hits, to recovering from a space weather event.
The first phases are mostly around planning, or beginning a response if the risk of of space weather impacting New Zealand rises.
The most critical phases are phase two and three, which will be initiated if a credible threat of space weather is received, and then during the initial response to the space weather.
A State of Emergency would be discussed and potentially declared during phase two of the response. The public would also be notified of any safety messaging during this phase, or earlier if enough warning is given.
Messages have already been drafted for an emergency mobile alert if needed.
It says: "The National Emergency Management Agency advises a large solar flare will have impacts on New Zealand. Transpower will take action... to protect severe damage to our national electricity grid.
"The solar flare energy will not harm humans or domestic animals, but you could be without power for approximately 6 days. Keep cell phones on so you can receive alerts. If you have cell service, only use your phone in emergencies. AM radio frequencies are likely to be operational, so listen to the radio for updates. "
Phase four onward is for after the major effects of the space weather have dissipated, and the recovery process has been initiated.
Price said responding to a space weather event would be complicated and require difficult decisions around short term disruption to avoid longer term impacts. He said these decisions may need to be taken at a time when communication services are degrade, but the new plan is designed to help mitigate the effect on communities.
"The best time to build a whare to protect the family is when the sun is shining. So, it is important that we plan collaboratively now, to ensure the safety of New Zealand."
NEMA chief science adviser Tom Wilson told Morning Report New Zealand was reliant on the global scientific effort to monitor the sun to try and get the best warnings should there be a large event. happen.
"For example, potentially in an extreme event, turning off parts of or all of the electricity network. Which of course is a very severe decision but it might be better to protect the grid."
Wilson said Transpower was constantly monitoring space weather and was well prepared.
"What this space weather plan that NEMA has come up with is around how do we coordinate all of government, all of the different agencies and infrastructure companies so that we have a good clear joined-up approach to ensure that we can hopefully manage through one of these events as effectively as possible."
Wilson said there was a possibility that a solar storm could take out the entire world's electricity.
"The best thing that people can do, and communities, and iwi, marae, is to prepare to spend periods of time without electricity. It's a good part of your general disaster preparedness work anyway. And ensure your emergency supplies are up to date."
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