Scott Watson at the High Court in Christchurch in 2015. Photo: Pool / John Kirk-Anderson
Convicted double-murderer Scott Watson has appeared before the parole board again, but is yet to learn whether his latest bid for for freedom will be successful.
The board heard from four psychologists, who all say Watson remains at risk of re-offending, with one saying he is still high risk.
Watson was convicted of murdering Ben Smart and Olivia Hope in the Marlborough Sounds in 1998 and was sentenced to life in prison with a minimum non-parole period of 17 years.
He has always maintained his innocence and has spent more than 25 years behind bars.
Watson became eligible for parole in June 2015 and is has since been declined four times. This is his ninth parole hearing, after two adjournments last year.
At an appearance last May, the board raised questions about several psychological reports in recent years making different assessments of Watson's risk of reoffending.
At a six-hour hearing at Christchurch Men's Prison on Wednesday, the board heard from four psychologists who have authored reports on Watson in the past four years, in a bid to reconcile the different levels of risk.
Watson, dressed in a standard-issue prison uniform grey tracksuit, sat alongside his lawyer Kerry Cook. His denial of the murders has been a factor he has been denied parole in the past.
Parole Board chair Sir Ron Young said psychologists were tasked with trying to understand the circumstances of a crime, in order to determine the right focus for treatment.
"With a denier, none of that's possible, so to a degree we're searching a bit in the dark at times to understand why it all happened and so that's why a pretty cautious approach is applied to those who deny, because we don't know what we don't know."
Different risk assessments
Parole board panel member Dr Jeremy Skipworth said in the past decade, Watson's risk assessment had gone from "very high" to "low medium".
"In my experience that is an unusually large reduction in assessment of risk over a 10-year time period but nonetheless without intensive treatment."
The psychologists' reports were all conducted in the past four years and they cannot be named under parole board reporting restrictions.
The Corrections psychologist who assessed Watson in October 2021 said he was at high risk of reoffending and his continued denial of the murders was consistent with some of the traits listed in a psycopathy checklist that included a particular self-focus and a lack of regard or empathy for other people.
"He's very focused on his innocence, he's at no time made any comments around the fact that two young people lost their lives and there's families that have been hugely impacted by that loss."
The psychologist said while he could not assess Watson's current risk, people's personalities did not change much over time and he viewed Watson's risk as stable, in the absence of intensive psychological treatment.
There were references to incidents that had occurred during Watson's time in prison, which included throwing faeces, fighting with another prisoner, outing someone who was convicted of child sexual offences and a serious misconduct event at the prison in June last year.
Another Corrections psychologist who assessed Watson in September 2023 said he was at medium risk of reoffending.
She said he recognised problem behaviours around violence, had used pro-social strategies to communicate and problem solve without aggression in the decade prior and was willing to engage in treatment. She did not consider his denial of the murders to be a risk factor for future violent offending.
"There's no evidence in the research of denial of sexual offending being a risk factor for further sexual offending and as far as I'm aware there is no support for that for denial of a violent offence either."
She said any further violent offending was likely be opportunistic, while disinhibited by alcohol, could involve weapons and cause significant psychological or physical harm to victims who may be known or unknown to him.
It was the psychologist's view in a subsequent report in May 2024, that Watson's medium risk of reoffending and moderate reintegration needs could be managed in the community, if there was a safety plan based on relapse prevention strategies, along with engagement in individual psychological treatment.
Sir Ron asked the psychologist whether she could take that position, given the safety plan and the treatment had not been completed at that time of her report, with the psychologist conceding she didn't have adequate information to have done so.
A final Corrections psychologist, who completed a report on Watson in November 2024, after the serious misconduct incident at the prison, had assessed him as being at medium risk of violent re-offending.
She had not seen the CCTV footage of the incident, but had read the notes on it and said the officer who witnessed it said was an assault, while Watson said it was a play fight that had escalated into violence.
The psychologist said she believed Watson had the "propensity to be able to use violence in a certain set of circumstances" and he needed to explore that in order to to better understand it.
She believed that to "some extent" his risk could be mitigated in terms of another serious violent offence.
"The most likely reason he would probably be recalled to prison is an ineffective working relationship with probation services based on his personality pattern and his way of engaging."
The final independent psychologist provided a report to the parole board in March 2024. She did not meet with Watson in person, and assessed him based on the available evidence as being at a "moderate risk or average, below average risk" of violent reoffending.
She described him as being socially awkward, having "a bark worse than his bite" and said his risk of murdering again was unlikely.
With an appropriate release plan and conditions, wrap around support and early engagement with probation, she said Watson could be managed safely in the community.
"From my experience working in corrections and within criminal justice for the past 20 years, I've never really seen anybody with such robust community support.
"[There's] a broad range of different people who all expect him to succeed, they're all invested in him not going back to prison."
She said past behaviour was the best predictor of future behaviour and once someone had a conviction, they would never be considered to have no risk of re-offending.
"I don't think we're ever going to get to a point where we can say there's no risk."
When can we expect a decision?
The board now needs to receive final submissions from legal counsel in regards to parole.
Cook said Watson is seeking parole, with conditions, to a family member's house. It's understood Corrections oppose Watson's release.
A timeframe has not been set for submissions or a further hearing, but the board said it hopes to have a final decision on parole by 31 March.
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