Dr Richard Webby, Director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza. Photo: Supplied/St Jude Hospital
An influenza expert says that although it is hard to predict what New Zealand's flu season will be like, the virus can be deadly every year.
Director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza Dr Richard Webby told Sunday Morning that while the US had a particularly big flu season, there were many ways that New Zealand's winter could go.
"History doesn't really help us in this case. So just because we've had a big old season in the US, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be the same for the Kiwi winter coming up.
"Looking to what happened in the Northern Hemisphere helps to predict which viruses might be coming. But in terms of how severe the season's going to be, it's unfortunately not that much use to us.
"If we could understand it, of course, we'd be a little bit better at predicting it but we're lousy at that as well," Webby said.
In the US there had also been more people severely sick with the flu than usual, he said.
"If there's more flu around in general, more people getting infected, then you're just going to see more severe cases. The proportions may be the same as in other seasons. Those data are still being collected."
There were also many things still to be discovered about influenza transmission, he said.
"There's a lot we don't know about it.
"In terms of when people get infected in a household some people get infected, some don't. We don't really understand why that is.
"Sometimes some people [are] what we call super spreaders, and they'll spread it to a lot of people.
"You'd think we'd know but we really don't," Webby said.
Regardless of what the season might be like, vaccines were still the best protection against flu, he said.
"Clearly the more people we get vaccinated, the better off we're going to be."
"The high dose vaccine - which is really made particularly for the elderly - it does do a better job.
"Particularly if you're in, sort of, risk groups - particularly the elderly - if you can get your hands on the high dose vaccine, and can afford to pay for it, it is a good idea.
"Up to 600,000 die of influenza a year around the globe. So it can just be a sniffle, and sort of, put you out of your peak performance for a day or two. But it absolutely can be deadly, and it's deadly every year. It's deadly in the US every year and it's deadly in New Zealand every year as well."
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