Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump speaks in the library at Mar-a-Lago on 4 March, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida. The US Supreme Court ruled unanimously that Trump can appear on this year's presidential ballot in all states. Photo: ALON SKUY / AFP
In Donald Trump's firing line, foreign leaders decide whether to butter up or shout back.
In Donald Trump's firing line, foreign leaders decide whether to butter up or shout back.
Two months into the US president's presidency, leaders around the world are picking their battle strategies: butter him up, or speak truth to power?
To date, New Zealand has largely steered clear entirely, treading a careful line. Earlier this month, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters fired Phil Goff from his position as High Commissioner to the United Kingdom for making unflattering comments.
But this week, Peters is in Washington - where it may be harder to stay above the fray.
On today's episode of The Detail, former NZ Ambassador to the US Tim Groser weighs in on why some world leaders are still tiptoeing around Trump while others are lashing out, when it's time for world leaders to stand up to him, and what we can expect from the foreign affairs minister this week.
On the last point, Groser is confident.
"He will be very measured and very calm and avoid rhetorical fights in public," he says. "I'm certain of that."
And Groser says this is the right approach.
"I remember when I was a young foreign minister many years ago being told by one of our most senior people, 'from time to time, Tim,' he said, 'you will have to go through life in certain crises in which your public comments will make you look like an amiable idiot'.
"In other words, he was saying to me as a young diplomat, 'just preserve your real position for private discussions because very little if anything can be gained by public spats'."
Groser says that New Zealand's "orthodox, low-key approach" is the right one, though "it doesn't give a great deal of satisfaction because people want to hear 'strong statements of principle'."
Groser points to British PM Sir Keir Starmer's tactics of ingratiating himself to Trump as the right way to do things. Last month, Starmer presented a letter of invitation from the King, using Trump-like language - "This has never happened before. It's so incredible. It will be historic."
"My opinion of Sir Keir Starmer, who I've never met obviously or had any dealings with him... went up 100 percent as a result of that performance," says Groser. "I knew exactly what he was doing."
"I thought he was absolutely brilliant. Of course, I'm not writing op-ed for the Guardian. I'm looking at this from a professional's point of view in terms of how to manage a situation of immense importance to a major European country like the UK.
"I think Starmer did exactly the right thing. In fact, I'll send him another pallet of butter to go with his next meeting."
Over the past several weeks, the world has watched as Trump has gone head-to-head with various other leaders, most notably Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
"I would guess that the vast majority of New Zealanders would feel like me that if there is an important political leader on the planet today that deserves the title 'heroic,' it would be President Zelensky," says Groser.
"But he clearly made a big strategic error by publicly arguing with the president and vice president in vociferous terms."
But with a trade war fully in effect, at what point is it the right time for the world to line up on the other side and push back against Trump's policies?
Groser says, that time won't come, and it wouldn't work.
"He's not going to be constrained by 'strong and principled arguments made against him in public'. That's just a fantasy, I'm sorry, however satisfying it might feel to say them at the time."
"It will be the American people... that will put constraints on him."
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