Will ACT and David Seymour find themselves in a prime position on Election Day? Photo: RNZ / Mohammad Alafeshat
Power Play - ACT Party leader David Seymour will be patting himself on the back after a sell-out annual conference in central Auckland this weekend.
In the space of two electoral cycles, he has grown his party's caucus from one to 10 and the latest 1News Kantar political poll has it expanding again at Election 2023.
On these numbers, National and ACT could form the next government, with ACT bringing 15 MPs back to Parliament.
This would be ACT's biggest-ever caucus but Seymour has been clear that would not be enough.
The party has ambitions that goes beyond being in government; wanting to shape the policy agenda with its own ideas on economic management, crime and co-governance.
ACT's conference at SkyCity Theatre was the chance to showcase these ideas and the sell-out crowd of 600 - of course party faithful - keenly cheered them on.
It was clear the party's MPs were preaching to those who feel sidelined by government policy, whether it be the country's legislative framework to reach net zero emissions by 2050 or agencies considering treaty obligations in the way they operate.
The crowd was engaged, revelling in the criticism and digs lobbed at various other parties, including the one ACT would most likely support in a right-leaning government.
"Now, I know some people are nervous," Seymour told the crowd.
"It's essential to change the government and won't giving ACT your party vote take it away from National? Well the answer is yes, but they won't notice - they're barely using it."
Photo: RNZ / Anneke Smith
The conference crowd chortled but it is no laughing matter; having secured its support base ACT has seen an opportunity to take up political space and is using it wisely.
"Because we are ACT, we don't just oppose for its own sake, we propose good solutions as well," former National MP turned ACT candidate Parmjeet Parmar told the conference.
The party's solutions are fully outlined in its alternative budget that gives a sense of what the party would prioritise in any potential post-election negotiations.
Seymour is pitching ACTs latest policy, the creation of a new 'Ministry of Regulation', as an idea National just can't argue with and one his party would demand to be implemented.
"There's nothing we're saying that National shouldn't want to support," he told RNZ at the conference.
"It's important that someone puts it on the agenda because the past experience has been National gets in but they don't really change the direction that much."
It is clear ACT believes it can deliver a point of difference and is on the cusp of shaping the next government.
National's leader Christopher Luxon has, to date, downplayed any prospect of post-election negotiations, saying it is too early to speculate on possible arrangements.
But having ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori and working with the Greens an unlikely prospect, the landscape of National's potential partners is limited.
National's Christopher Luxon and Seymour are likely allies. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Support for New Zealand First has polled steady (3 percent in the latest 1News Kantar political poll) but these numbers would not enough to get it back into Parliament without an electorate seat.
Even parties like TOP, whose leader Raf Manji is taking a punt in Ilam - where the field has opened up with the decision of National's Gerry Brownlee to go list only - says it would want to sit on the cross benches rather than enter a formal governing deal.
This leaves ACT, that wants to introduce a two-rate income tax system, bring back charter schools, build more prison beds and reinstate the three strikes system.
National is aligned with some of ACT's policies - like repealing Three Waters - but is at odds in other areas like climate change policy, having supported the Zero Carbon Act and the country's emissions budgets.
It makes what any National-ACT arrangement would look like hard to predict but ACT would want any combination to be a finely-balanced one; with National getting enough support to shore up the base and ACT netting enough to give it the power to shape policy.
Some of ACT's caucus members will also no doubt be keen to take up government positions after a disciplined first term and the looming test of remaining so during a demanding election campaign.
The party and its MPs have a lot to lose - and a lot to gain - in Election 2023 but are primed for the contest voters will ultimately decide.
