Photo: Supplied
Analysis - The longer the war in Europe goes on the greater the risk it creeps closer to New Zealand's shores.
That reality is clear for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon after a seat at the table of NATO in Washington DC this week.
For Ukraine, the horror and hostility of war is present every day and the aggressions of Russian President Vladimir Putin has those NATO countries hard up against his borders on constant high alert.
It is why NATO partners kicked off this week's summit with a joint package of further military support in the form of drone defence capability and it is why so much time in Washington DC this week was spent talking about Putin.
The relationship between Russia's president and China's Xi Jinping, not to mention Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rendezvous with his "dear friend" Putin this week, are a very frightening reminder of the dynamics at play for the Indo-China region.
(Left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon and President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol attend a meeting of the heads of state of the North Atlantic Council, Indo-Pacifc Partners and the European Union, during the 2024 NATO Summit on 11 July, 2024 in Washington, DC. Photo: Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images / AFP
New Zealand relies heavily on China for trade and the prime minister has set a very clear goal this term of landing a free trade agreement with India, which had long-standing ties with the Soviet Union.
India's a huge untapped market for New Zealand, but together with China would have the country splitting its time between doing business with the two nations, while simultaneously keeping an eye on their posturing and ever-growing ties with Putin.
After sitting at the NATO council table on Friday, Luxon told media "when you're in a different part of the world democracy gets real, real fast, and you don't take it for granted".
The voices of those nearest the conflict - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, Estonia's Kaja Kallas, and Finland's Alexander Stubb - brought home the breakdown of that international rules-based order in one-on-one conversations with Luxon.
(From left) New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Kim Keon See and her husband South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his wife Olena Zelenska and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida watch from the balcony while participating in a group photo with NATO allies and partners at the White House on July 10, 2024 in Washington, DC. Photo: Tom Brenner / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP
New Zealand has been a great benefactor of that system since the end of World War II and as Luxon warned, "it's under threat".
"When it's under threat, you've actually got to call it out, and you've got to stand-up and make a contribution."
New Zealand's contribution was unveiled on Luxon's first day in the US when he announced $16 million of military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.
It brings our total offerings to $130m and the prime minister is very clear there will only be more in the coming months.
While New Zealand was just a small dot on the world map, that almost made the threat of Russia matter more, Luxon said.
"It matters more to us because, as I said in my NATO remarks, it's moved from rules to power, and that's not good for small countries."
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon arrives for the NATO 75th Anniversary Celebratory Event at the Mellon Auditorium in Washington, DC, on 9 July, 2024. Photo: AFP / Brendan Smialowski
For those looking for tangible outcomes from Luxon's three days of speed-dating US Democrats and Republicans and NATO leaders, they'll be out of luck.
This trip was never going to deliver a White House Oval Office sitdown or a new trade deal as New Zealand was lucky to be invited and is not even close to being a big player in Washington DC this week.
With US President Joe Biden, new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Zelensky all in town, the dance card was a long one for the 32 other leaders all wanting their moment with the heavy hitters.
In some respects, Luxon was a C-lister at NATO, but simply being there is a big deal for a country the size of New Zealand.
(Right to left) Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon chat before the Indo-Pacific partners meeting in Washington, DC, the United States on 11 July, 2024. Photo: Yomiuri / Yomiuri / The Yomiuri Shimbun via AFP
Given the instability and aggression being felt globally, it seemed particularly odd for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese not to be there, sending his deputy Richard Marles in his place.
Albanese might be concerned about domestic pressures at home and criticism of having been out of the country too often, but to miss that sort of gathering of world leaders and the intelligence and access that came with it seems a missed opportunity at such an important time.
When asked about whether there were any tangibles out of his meetings, Luxon stressed his participation at NATO was about something else.
"I want to underscore that Ukraine is fighting for democracy and it's something we believe in," Luxon said.
"Either we stand-up for values in our liberal democracy or we don't. We cannot have Ukraine lose this war, that is unacceptable and that's why you've seen us continue to support Ukraine.
"We cannot have Russia get away with invading a sovereign nation state - that matters to me and New Zealand because we're a small country and we rely on those international rules of law, and we respect sovereign states."
Joe Biden and Christopher Luxon in Washington DC, July 2024. Photo: Supplied
For some at home that might sound like word salad, and the sideshow of a beleaguered Biden and his blunders from one day to the next probably distracted from the job at hand in Washington DC.
But with the increasing aggressions in the South China Sea and North Korea's missile testing, it is vital that New Zealand has its eyes wide open to the world we now live in.
Nobody can paint a better picture of what it looks like if that aggression turns into real action than Zelensky.
Facetime with the Ukrainian president in Luxon's final hours at the NATO summit clearly brought home what is at stake for New Zealand.
