US President Donald Trump and Australia's Anthony Albanese. Photo: JIM WATSON / AFP
Analysis - While Labor's Anthony Albanese may now be ahead in the polls and the bookies' favourite to win this Saturday's Australian federal election, it's worth remembering that it's been anything but an easy first-term ride for the veteran Labor politician known as 'Albo'.
In fact, it may well be that if it wasn't for Donald Trump and the anger and uncertainty created by his tariff policy, Albo's Labor government could be dead and buried by now, and in serious trouble of being remembered as the first one-term government chucked out of office in Australia since 1929.
Now nothing is certain in politics, and Labor could still lose. Polls are known to get it wrong in Australia, they did with Scott Morrison's surprise win in 2019.
However, what is certain though is that life for Albo is looking a lot better than it was just a few months ago.
Back then his Labor government - still smarting from losing the Voice referendum on Aboriginal representation 2023 - was battling, like many incumbent governments, including in New Zealand, with a prolonged post cost-of-living crisis that has made voters very grumpy.
High food prices, high interest rates and housing being out of reach for many were just a few of the complaints.
As a result, earlier this year many commentators were predicting the Liberal/National Coalition leader Peter Dutton would, despite being an unpopular political figure himself, soon be the new prime minister.
And Dutton too seemed confident. Boosted by Donald's Trump's victory in November, he choose to tap in to what he perceived as similar voter angst in Australia about so-called woke policies and culture war issues.
That association with Trump however could well prove to have been a mistake. Because fast-forward to the last week of the campaign and it's Dutton who is scrambling, and under the most pressure. Why? Well it's due in part to Trump's tariffs and upending of the world economic order.
Australia, despite being a US ally, has not escaped Trump's tariffs - and that has not gone down well in Australia. That's led to a similar, albeit more muted, 'rally around the flag' backlash against Trump here.
In addition, the turmoil on markets from the tariffs has made consumers nervous. In times of uncertainty, many voters it seems will stick with what they know rather than go for change.
Peter Dutton. Photo: DAVID GRAY / AFP
That sentiment has worked against Dutton's campaign and his long-cultivated 'strong man, tough on crime and immigration' image. Those early allusions to Trump and the need to end so-called woke policies have largely disappeared from his campaign rhetoric.
Not helping his Liberal-National Coalition campaign has also been a series of backflips, gaffes and policy missteps. The most serious perhaps was early on when he pushed for civil servants to end their work from home habits. This was poorly received by many women voters and exploited by a well-oiled ruthless Labor party campaign machine.
For Dutton to win a majority, he will need to pick up a whopping 20 seats. What seems more plausible is that the Coalition whilst not winning 20, picks up enough to force Labor to have to form a minority government with a raft of independent MPs.
Albanese will back himself to cobble together a minority government. But he'll have a lot of work to do to prolong a strong, stable second term.
Labor, like the Coalition, has been put on notice by credit rating agencies around the financial sustainability of their policies and the risk of Australia racking up big deficits into the future.
So while Albanese may well - if the polls are to be believed - get a second term, he will have his work cut out for him leading Australia in troubled times.
* Corin Dann is co-host of RNZ's Morning Report.
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