19 May 2022

Budget 2022: Expectations vs Reality

6:49 pm on 19 May 2022

Expectations were high for this year's Budget to help alleviate the cost of living, and solve health and climate challenges without adding too much to inflation.

Grant Robertson announcing Budget 2022

Grant Robertson announcing Budget 2022. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

With concerns about propping up industry in the face of lockdowns and illness diminishing, Finance Minister Grant Robertson had long signalled that health and climate would be the main spending areas in this year's budget.

In line with rejigged financial responsibility rules revealed early this month, spending was still set to be the highest of any Budget ever, though polling suggested keeping things steady would be more popular.

High inflation and the cost of living have been a real concern for households however, and a constant attack line from the opposition.

So have these fears and concerns been ameliorated? RNZ sets out whether expectations were met when the chips were down.

Cost of living

Expectations

Last year's Budget was focused on welfare and social supports, but advocates a year ago were already questioning whether the government's increased supports would be enough, and high inflation has only made things tougher.

The rising cost of living has been a rallying cause for the opposition and for many families it's more than academic - academics themselves have urged more effort on reducing child poverty, and the pressure has been on to make things a bit easier for low- and middle-income New Zealanders.

Robertson's Budget has needed to walk a fine line between reining in inflationary spending and keeping infrastructure promises, however. He promised not to bring in new taxes, but has also ruled out untargeted tax cuts as the opposition has urged.

Pre-Budget day announcements included $114.5m for the Family Violence Prevention Strategy, $15m for youth development services over four years.

The government had also already brought in short-term relief after the invasion of Ukraine: cuts to fuel excise and road user charges, and half-price transport. Expectations were high the popular public transport move would be extended.

Reality

The headline cost-of-living payment this year offers $350 spread across three months for individuals who made less than $70,000.

The interim transport, fuel and road user charge measures were also extended, with half-price fares continuing in perpetuity for those with Community Services Cards.

The government is also planning rush urgent legislation through the house to limit the use of covenants that prevent competitors from accessing land to open new stores.

Health

Expectations

The health system reforms have long been signalled as one of the major items on the agenda.

Last year's Budget set aside $4.7b in additional funding for Health, with $2.7b going to DHBs and more than half a billion going to infrastructure.

Some $486m was set aside to start the transition to shift from 20 DHBs to a unified health system, and $98m was pegged for setting up the new Māori Health Authority and a further $127m for it to spend on commissioning.

But more would inevitably be needed to complete the shift and bring the health system's infrastructure up to scratch. There's also the set-up of the new Disability Ministry and rollout of its new services, which the government had kept largely under wraps.

Community leaders and health workers were also hoping for a significant spend on Māori health, particularly through the Māori Health Authority.

This year, pre-Budget health announcements included $100m on mental health and addiction services, and $90m on rolling out Mana Ake, the in-school mental health programme set up in Christchurch schools after the earthquakes, to five more regions as promised.

Reality

Robertson spent a record amount on health this year with $11.1b going to the sector, including $1.8b to clear DHBs' deficits as services are shifted to the new Health New Zealand system and Te Mana Hauora Māori Health Authority.

There's also $1.3b for capital investments - fixing up and updating hospital buildings - with record annual ongoing funding of $1.8b for Health NZ and $168m for commissioning of hauora Māori services through the new Māori Health Authority.

Pharmac - which got a boost last Budget - is getting a further boost with $191m extra over two years, bringing its budget to $1.2b, 43 percent higher than in 2017.

Ambulance services are also getting a $166m boost, including funding specifically for vehicles and staff, and $90.7m is going to their airborne counterparts.

The new Ministry for Disabled People is set to cost $108m for ongoing operations, and a total $835m will go towards disability services, with $100m for the Enabling Good Lives rollout and the remainder adding to the services' sustainability, particularly as the new approach brings more demand.

Climate

Expectations

Last year was a disappointment for climate action groups hoping for progress from the government.

Robertson's stated prioritisation raised hopes this year's efforts would be a step up, that the government's first emissions reduction plan would finally see substantial investment into tackling emissions.

The government set out much of its spending on climate projects on Monday with the release of its first Emissions Reduction Plan, spending the proceeds of the Emissions Trading Scheme.

Ministers left themselves a bit of wiggle room for further announcements however, and expectations were high the three-month half-price public transport would be extended.

The other side of the ledger is of course efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change, especially with recent revelations some areas of the country will be inundated far sooner than previously thought. The government is seeking feedback on how this can be tackled so don't expect much action until that's complete, but already the Insurance Council has warned funds should be set aside for mitigating increasing floods.

Reality

The Budget documents today were mostly a repeat of the Emissions Reduction Plan released on Monday.

Monitoring to keep that plan on track will see the government spend more than $21.9m across environmental and financial portfolios.

The two-month half-price public transport extension is costing $27.1m, and more than $102.8m will keep it going for the following four years for Community Services Cardholders - both from the CERF.

Some $2.12m will also go to a climate-related financial disclosures regime, and the Climate Change Commission, He Pou a Rangi, will get over $3m a year in operating expenditure and $2.7m in capital funding.

New Zealand's emissions targets will also need to be offset through offshore mitigation measures, and the government is planning to spend more than $8.9m over four years to support this, including with sustainable development in the Asia Pacific region and setting up links between the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme and its international equivalents. Another $3.6m will help scale up a voluntary carbon market.

Over $10.6m has been set aside for developing the Climate Adaptation Act over four years as part of the RMA reforms, and a further 36.7m over four years for funding the Ministry for the Environment's climate adaptation and low-carbon future work.

Education

Expectations

One of the early announcements of Budget spending last week saw $230m dropped on extending a trades apprenticeships programme, plus $10.9m to fund 1600 Mana in Mahi places, and $66.2m to continue support for the Māori Trades and Training Fund.

The return of international students offers a beacon of hope for an industry which pre-pandemic pulled in $5b a year. Minister Chris Hipkins is heading overseas to promote New Zealand as a study destination, some education agents warned it would take time to recover, and immigration changes would hit the India market especially hard.

Schools have also been anxious for the replacement of deciles in determining funding, principals urging money be spend to hasten that work along.

Reality

Schools are getting a capital boost in the order of $777m, including building and refurbishing 280 classrooms at more than 40 schools.

The much-hoped-for shift away from deciles is also being addressed with $293m operating and $8m capital funding going towards the new Equity Index system over four years - with a $75m a year increase on top of the $150m they currently receive.

Schools will get a $184m operating grants boost, and early education teachers are also set to benefit from $266m set aside to achieve pay parity with school teachers.

Broadcasting, media and arts

Expectations

The RNZ and TVNZ public media shake-up which Broadcasting Minister Kris Faafoi announced confirmed the publicly funded broadcasters would be subsumed under a new Public Media Entity umbrella to be operational by July next year.

There has been criticism of the government's Public Interest Journalism Fund (PIJF) from many who claim it comes with strings attached.

Te Pāti Māori has also urged the government to spend as much on national kapa haka competition Te Matatini as it does on other groups like the Royal New Zealand Ballet.

Reality

The new Public Media Entity will receive $370m over four years operating budget, and $306m in capital funding.

RNZ is also in line for $4.5m extra for a new Pacific shortwave transmitter, and $1m operational funding over four years to operate it.

There is no new funding for the PIJF in this year's Budget.

Te Matatini is set to get a boost through the Cultural Sector Workforce Capability initiative so it can deliver the beloved Te Matatini Herenga Waka Herenga Tangata National kapa haka festival and help plan for the future to develop a regional kapa haka model.

The initiative includes $45m over four years, however, that is allocated to a number of organisations - including NZSO, Royal New Zealand Ballet, Ngā Taonga Sound and Vision and others - with Te Matatini set to receive $4m over four years.

Law and order

Expectations

Pre-announced decisions early this month included a raft of law and order measures to increase police numbers, address gang violence and extend rehabilitation programmes.

Ministers also made decisions about additional funding for bollards and similar measures to counteract ram raiders on Monday, and $114.5m was apportioned for the family and sexual violence prevention strategy, Te Aorerekura.

Reality

The Budget also provided an extra $190m for the legal aid scheme, which had been under serious pressure, with lawyers saying it was heading for crisis.

The Te Ao Mārama approach to district courts is also getting a $47m boost, and support for bereaved families dealing with coroners will be improved with $30m.

The Independent Police Conduct Authority, which has been accused of secrecy and a severe lack of resources, has been given an extra $4m.

Some $4m will also go to updating the courts' case management systems, and three alcohol and drug treatment courts will be made permanent.

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