The discount has caused New Zealand to have one of the fastest uptake rates in the world for clean cars. Photo: 123RF
New Zealand research shows relying on the emissions trading scheme (ETS) alone to drive decarbonisation would see petrol prices need to rise by 60 cents a litre.
If National and the ACT Party are elected to government the Clean Car Discount, which subsidises electric vehicles and hybrids, is on the scrap pile.
That is despite Ministry of Transport data showing constituents in the electorates held by the two parties' leaders are among the discount's biggest users.
In David Seymour's Epsom electorate it is one in six, and in Botany, Christopher Luxon's seat, it is one in seven.
The national average is one in 18 households.
The discount has caused New Zealand to have one of the fastest uptake rates in the world for clean cars, with 60 percent of all new cars sold in August being electric or hybrid.
EV lobby group Better New Zealand Trust chairperson Kathryn Trounson feared without the subsidy the momentum would stop.
"I think it would slow it to an absolute dribble. The uptake since July 2021, which is when the Clean Car Discount was introduced, has been nothing short of astronomic. It's been fantastic," she said.
"I think people will go, 'Oh, yes an EV, yes, I could get one but perhaps not now'."
National's transport spokesperson Simeon Brown said higher carbon and petrol prices will drive uptake instead.
But Trounson said that was "not the least bit palatable" as an excuse.
"People vote with their wallets for virtually anything and everything they buy," she said.
"But I think having had two years of a discount which has moved the dice forward so brilliantly, then I think the mere fact that it is removed, it's like pulling the rug from underneath somebody's feet."
New Zealand has a target to reduce transport emissions by 41 percent by 2035.
A report titled Why The ETS Can't Do It Alone said carbon would need to be priced at $235 per tonne to achieve that target - pushing up fuel prices.
Its co-author Massey University Professor Robert McLachlan said if the carbon price skyrocketed it would be very damaging to industry, which would not have time to react.
"And it still wouldn't have much effect on transport which is a huge chunk of our emissions," he said.
The already increasing cost of petrol has not so far deterred people from driving, he said.
McLachlan said a price-only measure like the ETS, can work for simple changes like replacing a dirty factory with a clean one, "but that's not the situation we're faced with in climate change."
"What you need are these, what we call complementary measures. So that's where the clean car plan comes in," he said.
Labour Party MP Megan Woods agreed the ETS cannot decrease carbon alone, and told National's climate spokesperson Simon Watts his party's plan will cause electricity and petrol prices to rise.
"That is simply not the case," Watts said.
"What National are focused on is implementing the initiatives that will lower our emissions to hit our targets. That is particularly focused around doubling New Zealand's renewable energy and electricity supply.
"The ETS price will go where it goes because we support a market-based system," adding that a government needs to focus on getting things done.
Watts said National would not change the emissions trading scheme, against the advice of the Climate Commission which said unit prices should not be set by government, as they are now.
Trounson said New Zealand cannot afford to go backwards.
"We have to go forwards, otherwise we'll miss our targets by a country mile."
McLachlan agreed: "We're just starting this journey and we really need to accelerate it rather than backing off."
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