Security threats are increasingly likely to come from within New Zealand, an SIS report has found. Photo: 123RF
Threats to New Zealand's national security are increasingly likely to come from within - be it disgruntled government employees or those in desperate need of extra cash.
That is the finding of a just-released report from the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) - its second ever report detailing the security threats facing the country.
Read the full Security Threat Environment report (PDF, 5188KB)
Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton said the release of last year's report was a significant step in raising awareness and this year's edition goes even further.
The assessment aimed to be as up front as possible about national security threats facing New Zealand, he said.
The report includes a number of case studies including analysis on recent investigations that lift the lid on the range of national security threats observed by the NZSIS, he said.
Key risks identified include foreign interference and espionage, risks brewing from the ongoing power play in the Indo-Pacific, as well as violent extremism and another lone-wolf terror attack.
Key points from New Zealand's Security Threat Environment 2024: an assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service include:
- New Zealand's unique place and role in the Pacific can make us vulnerable to the activities of other states striving for influence and position throughout the region;
- A small number of foreign states conduct interference and espionage in and against New Zealand and New Zealanders. These states seek to disrupt the rights of New Zealanders, including their right to freedom of expression;
- There are consequences for New Zealand's national security from intentional or unintentional harm caused by people in positions of trust in public or private organisations. The harm could come through acts of espionage, unauthorised disclosure of information, the loss or degradation of a resource or capability, or in extreme cases acts of terrorism;
- The most likely terrorist attack scenario in New Zealand is a lone actor, acting with little to no intelligence forewarning; and
- There are a small number of people who subscribe to a range of known violent extremist ideologies. Increasingly, we also see individuals whom we assess to support violence from a mixed, unstable, or unclear ideological outlook.
Threat situation increasingly complex
This year's threat assessment indicates that the situation is becoming increasingly complex across areas including foreign interference and espionage, violent extremism and terrorism and the risk of an insider threat, he said.
"Often what's driving that complexity is global factors which are impacting on New Zealand's national security. In the past we thought that we could rely on our geographical isolation to a reasonable extent to keep us safe from those types of threats - obviously that's no longer the case."
Like last year, this year's assessment indicates that "there is a realistic possibility of a terrorist attack in New Zealand unfortunately", he said.
"What's changed is we've seen globally a deterioration in the global threat environment which may well impact on the New Zealand situation."
Geostrategic competition is playing out in our region and across the world which has added to the domestic complexity, he said.
Some of the issues such as violent extremism and foreign interference were now starting to overlap, he said.
"There are examples globally for example where you have state actors helping criminal groups to undertake foreign interference on their behalf or you may have a foreign state who is prepared to engage with a terrorist organisation because it helps them with some of their geostrategic priorities."
Which individuals are of concern?
The NZSIS was only highly concerned about a small number of New Zealanders who were subject to investigation and who the agency knew "had the intent and capability to undertake a violent act", he said.
The work of the NZSIS did not just include those individuals they knew about, he said.
"We also undertake discovery work to try and find the unknown threat actors and that involves work online, it involves work with partners."
Communities also provide information with about 20 percent of leads in the last three to four years came from community groups, he said.
Identity motivated violent extremism was where groups and individuals who are motivated by some sense of their own superiority in terms of their identity and tend to denigrate others", he said.
In terms of that category the most concerning was the white based identity extremists, he said.
A group that was of growing concern to the NZSIS was individuals, many young, "who we describe as mixed unclear unstable motivations", he said.
"They don't adhere strongly to any one particular ideological group, they often have quite self styled motivations, they're often fixated with violence."
Insider threat
The NZSIS believes there is a threat from people in positions of power giving foreign states classified information.
"What we mean by insider threat is an individual who may have access to an organisation's information, their systems, their facilities who can then use that trusted position to act in a way that harms the organisation," Hampton said.
Some people do this unwittingly, he said.
For example the People's Republic of China uses professional networking sites such as Linked In which may provide sources of intelligence, he said.
"There are examples where New Zealanders have inadvertently been lured into providing information," he said.
"We actually have an example where an individual working for a government department did sign a contract, not knowing of course that they were engaging with a representative of a foreign government to undertake research, fortunately we were able to intervene early and to stop that from going ahead."
Report highlights problems faced by NZSIS in tackling security threats
An international relations expert says a new report offers organisations an opportunity to improve their security.
Victoria University's Centre for Strategic Studies director David Capie said the level of detail contained in the report, particularly in relation to some of the case studies, would highlight to everyday New Zealanders some of the challenges that the NZSIS was facing.
The report drives home how many countries outside of New Zealand are seeking to influence New Zealand and New Zealanders, he said.
It was not a problem when that was being done openly and transparently, but if they were using deceptive, corrupt or coercive practices to influence that was of concern to the NZSIS, he said.
There was always a balance for spy agencies in terms of being open, transparent and sharing information to give people a sense they could be confident about that information and "on the other hand having to preserve the method and sources they use to obtain this information in the first place", he said.
Capie said information provided in the report allowed people to think about how they could prevent these attacks.
Job cuts will worsen country's response to threats - PSA
The Public Service Association (PSA) believes that recent job cuts at the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) will worsen the country's response to dealing with security threats.
In June, DIA confirmed 76 roles were being axed at its Regulation and Policy branch, as part of the seven percent cost-cutting demanded by the government.
Fleur Fitzsimons said the government has dismissed experts at the DIA who work on online harm, foreign interference and digital espionage.
"This will undermine our ability as a country to respond to these threats."
She said the report made it clear that there needed to be an increased focus from public agencies to ensure staff were aware of the practical actions they should take to stay safe from foreign interference and digital espionage.
Fitzsimons said she understood the training in this area was "quite patchy" and stated that needed to change.
