New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM

A grinding recession and racial tensions have ended National's honeymoon with voters, who would deliver a hung Parliament if an election was held today, a new poll shows.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows National slipping four points since the October 2023 election.

Labour has gained four and leader Chris Hipkins pulls ahead of National's Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister, meaning the race for 2026 is very much alive.

That's a comforting turnaround for the main opposition party, which met for its annual conference over the weekend.

Labour saw its vote share crash from 50 percent in 2020 to just under 27 percent last year, its second worst performance since 1969.

Christopher Luxon's party still has a lead on 34 percent, but it's down from its 38 percent election win, a result that won't soothe fears about his leadership style.

Its coalition partner ACT is on 8 percent (down a point) with no change for New Zealand First, on 6 percent.

In the left bloc, Labour has a lift from 26.9 percent at the election to 31 percent. Both the Greens (13 percent) and Te Pāti Māori (6 percent) are up one point each.

Assuming all seats won on election night are held, and using the Electoral Commission's seat calculator, these results would deliver an overhang in Parliament with both Te Pāti Māori and National winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement.

That would give both main parties a daunting task to put together a government.

Field work was done last week, in the aftermath of a 45,000-strong hīkoi outside Parliament against a controversial bill seeking to reinterpret the Treaty of Waitangi, and data that showed the economy continues to soften as unemployment bites.

Freshwater Strategy director and pollster Mike Turner - who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn, Liz Truss and The Australian Financial Review - said: "These shifts are in line with other contemporary polls and indicates the National honeymoon period with voters is well and truly over.

"Other parties are mostly unchanged."

In a further blow to Luxon, the poll shows Hipkins (42 percent) leads as preferred prime minister, but by just one point. Both leaders are down when compared to 2023.

Former PM Jacinda Ardern has the highest level of favourability among those tested (a net positive of eight points, up four points from a Post/Freshwater Strategy poll taken in late August 2023).

David Seymour's popularity has taken the biggest hit (a net approval of -24, down 30 points over the course of the year), likely reflecting a public response to the debate around the Treaty Principles Bill.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has also seen a drop (a net approval of -22, down 6 points).

The national outlook remains poor. Almost half (48 percent) of voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction, while just over one in three (35 percent) think it is heading in the right direction.

But, this represents an improvement from the 64 percent of voters who said the "wrong direction" in a Post/Freshwater Strategy taken in late August 2023.

Relieving cost of living pressures is the top priority issue among voters (60 percent), followed by improving healthcare and hospital services (45 percent) and improving housing supply and affordability (30 percent).

Creating jobs and reducing unemployment (22 percent) has increased by 13 points compared to the last year's poll.

Reducing crime and improving social order (27 percent, -12pts) and reducing taxation and government spending (15 percent, -10pts) have both decreased, perhaps reflecting a sense that the government has addressed some of these concerns.

"Luxon and National have strong leads on national debt (net approval +25), reducing crime (net approval +22), defence (net approval +24), and economy (net approval +18)," Turner said.

"However, they are no longer seen as best to manage key voter issues of jobs, cost of living, improving education, improving housing and healthcare.

"Luxon has lost leads over Hipkins, on the attributes of fiscal management (net approval +8, down 15 points) and improving the lives of voters (net approval -7, down 14 points) further reflecting the rapid shift in sentiment against the first-term government."

The research, which drilled down into voter intention and attitudes, and in-depth analysis of the numbers, will be rolled out in The Post and Sunday Star-Times in coming days.

It shows:

• National: 34 percent, down 4 percentage points since the election (43 seats)
• Labour: 31 percent, up 4 (39 seats)
• Greens: 13 percent, up 1 (16 seats)
• ACT: 8 percent, down 1 (10 seats)
• NZ First: 6 percent, no change (8 seats)
• Te Pāti Māori: 4 percent, up 1 (6 seats)

Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,150 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 26-27 November 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

- Stuff