The Climate Change Commission say efforts to meeting a new target need to begin soon. Photo: VNP/Louis Collins
Minister for Agriculture and Forestry Todd McClay says the government won't be buying carbon credits overseas to meet the government's 2030 climate targets.
But Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says the government is "realistic" about the need to cooperate with other countries and "all options are being considered".
According to the latest calculations the government would be more than 90 million tonnes - over a year's worth of the whole country's greenhouse gases - short of meeting its international promises under the Paris Agreement target if it doesn't buy help from overseas but the minister repeatedly told Morning Report spending money overseas was off the cards.
"No we don't have to go and buy credits overseas to meet our obligations and we're working very hard to make sure we don't.
"The idea of sending billions overseas is not palatable to anybody in New Zealand."
When pressed by host Corin Dann the minister said the government would meet the 2030 target but would not say how it planned to meet the shortfall without buying the billions of dollars in credits envisaged by the target, saying people would need to wait for the coalition's next Paris Agreement target in February.
The next target McClay referred is due in February (known as an NDC or Nationally Determined Contribution) and runs from 2031 to 2035 - a different period from the 2021-2030 target which the government was expected to need offshore carbon credits to meet.
Asked about McClay's statements, Watts said the government was committed to meeting the 2021-2030 target, and wanted to achieve as much as possible inside New Zealand. He also said it was "realistic about the challenges of meeting the first NDC and the need to cooperate".
"Offshore mitigation is not just about purchasing, but also the ways New Zealand can assist partner countries to achieve their own climate change goals," he said.
RNZ has asked Watts what he meant by offshore mitigation of greenhouse gases that does not involve a purchase.
Watts previously made similar comment about overseas purchases being "not realistic" at a conference earlier this year, but later appeared to backtrack and acknowledge there was no way to meet the 2030 target without overseas help.
When pressed on his comments later, Watts confirmed that successive governments had always planned to buy credits and offshore purchases were necessary.
Watts was co-chair of international negotiations on international carbon trading rules at the COP29 summit last month.
Watts previously confirmed he was aware of advice from officials that these credits could cost five times more if they are purchased close to 2030.
Currently the government is looking like it will barely meet its carbon budgets at home from now until 2030, let alone exceed them by enough to remove the need for offshore help.
The precarious situation prompted independent watchdogs to raise the alarm about the lack of wriggle room for lowering planet-heating pollution.
Treasury has said the costs of buying help from countries - likely in Asia and Pacific - to lower their emissions in a bilateral deal would be "significant" and will start biting "within the current fiscal forecast period" - with a starting price of around $4 billion for the 2021-2030 decade.
The cost is likely to rise the longer the government leaves the purchases, foreign affairs officials have told Watts.
Submissions on next target
Meanwhile, submissions also close on Sunday on what New Zealand's next international climate target, for 2031-35, should be.
New Zealand's current target under the Paris Agreement is cutting net emissions by 50 percent from gross 2005 levels by 2030, using a mix of home-grown changes and buying carbon reductions overseas.
The next target runs from 2031-35 and a former climate ambassador for New Zealand, Kay Harrison, has said it "needs to start with a 6, at least."
The UK's target is 81 percent below 1990 levels but most countries won't unveil their targets until February 2025.
The Climate Change Commission has told the government it could achieve up to 69 percent lower emissions off 2005 levels by 2035 purely by taking action at home, but efforts would need to start soon.
Achieving that much less planet-heating pollution inside New Zealand would require the government to step on the accelerator, it found.
Maintaining the current lower rates of technology uptake and systems change could see more like 47 percent reductions, the commission found - which would be a tough sell under the Paris deal because countries agreed to step up their efforts each time.
The main contributors to lowering emissions would be: Electrifying cars and other transport, more walking and cycling and public transport, switching industrial factories to electric options, more renewable energy, using low-methane livestock breeds, maintaining tree planting, and capturing gases from landfill and geothermal energy production.
GDP would still increase, and reduced air pollution in 2031-35 could have health benefits worth up to $12.1 billion, depending on how successful the emissions cuts were, the advice to the government said.
The coalition has to publish its new target in February alongside all other countries.
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