After 20 years in and out of the saddle, Winston Peters' latest foreign rodeo has potential to be his bumpiest yet

• Foreign Minister Winston Peters is in Washington DC for meetings with US government officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio
• It comes as a global 'trade war' continues
• Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has taken part in a phone call with the Ukraine 'coalition of the willing'

Analysis - Winston Peters is no stranger to international diplomacy - he first became the minister of foreign affairs in October 2005, 20 years ago this year. As Peters himself would say, it's not his first rodeo.

But his next rodeo - a trip to meet his counterpart in Washington DC - comes during a period of international volatility, where rules seem to be constantly changing. It's a time in which previously accepted ties and relationships are vulnerable, uncertain and being tested.

Global trade wars are underway. Geopolitical tensions are bubbling - in the Pacific region, this has taken the form of China sending warships into the Tasman Sea. From Yemen, to Gaza, to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, diplomacy keeps failing to meaningfully assert itself.

And Peters, the first coalition government member to meet face to face with the US administration, will be treading lightly and taking the opportunity to listen.

No news is good news, as they say, and Peters arrives in Washington DC at a time when New Zealand is not on the US' radar - and potentially not at immediate risk of President Donald Trump's 'America First' policy.

What Winston Peters is arriving in to

Peters has hit DC after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's extraordinary reception at the White House - "acrimony and chaos" as the BBC reporter in the room described it - and the resulting pause of military aid and intelligence sharing; after US tariff wars with Canada, Mexico, China, and even - briefly - with Colombia, as well as rejecting Australia's bid for a concession to tariffs; after threats against Europe, including a 200 percent tariff on wine; and after US aid cuts worth roughly $60 billion globally.

A politician who attracts plenty of attention at home, Peters' three-day visit to the capitol will be about attracting the right kind of attention.

The potential for punishing or retaliatory tariffs, or other consequences, from the US is so significant that Phil Goff - respected across the political spectrum - was sacked as New Zealand's ambassador to the UK for remarks that were deemed too political, leaving his position "untenable. Peters said he did not want to do it, but he removed Goff from the role, signalling just how seriously the foreign minister is considering the current climate.

Furthermore, Peters has given no indication specifically of what he will discuss with Secretary of State Marco Rubio when they meet. Asked in Wellington before travelling, Peters indicated it would not be appropriate to share those comments with the media first, before having said them directly to their intended recipient. But his face-to-face meeting (in the works since the Trump administration was sworn in) could not have come at a better time.

New York visit

Peters' first stop was in New York City where he met with UN officials, as well as the Canadian ambassador to the US, Bob Rae, and president emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations, Dr Richard Haas.

Haas is currently senior counsellor with a US investment banking firm that provides strategic advice and consultancy services. He is a former US State Department director for policy planning, and was a principal advisor to Secretary of State Colin Powell. He served under three Presidents (Reagan, Bush I and Bush II). His experience makes him one of the foremost political intellects for the Republicans and its administrations. A spokesperson for Peters said Haas provided fascinating insights and commentary on US foreign policy direction and analysis of the new administration.

Peters then met with Rae, the ambassador and permanent representative of Canada to the United Nations. A spokesperson for the minister said the pair discussed a range of political issues over lunch, including the geopolitical climate and current challenges.

Rae has been Canada's UN representative since 2020 and was the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada from 2011 to 2013. He was closely affiliated to the Trudeau government, now led by Mark Carney. Given his political experience and allegiance, he has a clear idea of the current challenges faced by Canada as a result of Trump's decisions and the tit for tat on tariffs, which have occurred early in his term. In comparison, New Zealand has not had the same exposure to the new administration, and Peters would have been able to gather a first-hand account of that experience as he heads into his own meetings this week.

The Rubio meeting

Peters meets with Rubio on Wednesday morning (NZT). First and foremost, meeting face-to-face with his counterpart gives Peters the chance to establish a rapport with Rubio - who he does not have a prior relationship with - and reaffirm the ties between New Zealand and the US.

When Peters announced the trip, he said the United States is one of New Zealand's "closest and most important partners", and spoke of the chance to "engage directly" on "our mutually beneficial bilateral relationship".

He said a wide range of international issues will be discussed during the visit, both in New York and in Washington DC.

"Whether Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific or security cooperation, there's a lot to discuss."

The silence when it comes to specifics is strategic. Peters is in the US to listen - though, he has acknowledged he will always advocate for New Zealand's best interests, including tariff exemptions. These meetings are an opportunity to better understand the current administration in relation to New Zealand, and to what extent any decisions by the president might impact New Zealand directly. That will better inform any decisions the coalition government makes when responding.

Trade, defence, and security will no doubt be on the agenda.

Trade

It is possible New Zealand could be caught up in new and ongoing trade wars, despite its best endeavours to hide in plain sight. Concerns around tariffs on steel and aluminium, and on agriculture, have the coalition monitoring the situation, to use diplomatic speech.

But here, too, New Zealand is treading softly. When recently asked about giving more support to Ukraine, Peters counselled against "startling at shadows". The coalition will want to be certain of the impact of any tariff drift before responding to it. The lessons of Canada, Mexico, China and Europe are that things can escalate. Tit-for-tat is not a game New Zealand will want to play against Trump.

Trade Minister Todd McClay had a call with his counterpart, the newly confirmed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, at the weekend. They spoke about the "strong and mutually beneficial trade relationship between New Zealand and the United States".

McClay said they spoke about the "importance of open and fair market access between our countries and agreed to continue dialogue as the US administration's trade policies are implemented".

Speaking from India, McClay added they "didn't get into any detail over tariffs, but certainly made the case for why New Zealand respects the rules".

"We don't change our currency, we don't put in place barriers to exclude others, and that we abide by those rules."

The call comes at just the right time - on the eve of Peters' Washington visit - paving the way for open dialogue in person on the issue.

Defence

More and more, New Zealand is being drawn onto the global stage when it comes to security and defence in an increasingly strained geostrategic environment.

Peters had another well-timed meeting recently with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing. It came just as China sent military ships into the Tasman Sea, which Australia and New Zealand monitored closely. After this, he told RNZ 2 percent of GDP when it comes to defence spending is no longer enough.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already signalled an increase to defence spending, paid for by cutting foreign aid.

Both Japan and Australia have been under pressure from the US to increase their defence spending.

In New Zealand, the long-awaited Defence Capability Plan (DCP) is due to be released "soon", according to minister Judith Collins. It has been delayed a number of times but given it will outline major investments in defence for the next 15 years and the current financial strain the government is under, the coalition will want to get this right.

According to Collins, the DCP will detail what is required to modernise the NZ Defence Force to operate in what is "an increasingly unstable world". It will specify what resources, equipment and support are required.

Continued involvement in the Five Eyes information sharing arrangement, and a potential membership of AUKUS Pillar Two could also require some more heavy lifting when it comes to defence and security arrangements.

Ukraine

Rubio was in the Oval Office during the meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky. He also secured agreement from Ukraine for a ceasefire. The meeting with Rubio may be an opportunity for Peters to get an indication of what a potential ceasefire might look like. The US may also seek an indication from Peters this week as to what capability New Zealand has to offer in a peacekeeping operation.

Following the Oval Office meeting, the United Kingdom and Europe jointly created the 'coalition of the willing' to ensure peacekeeping forces will be available, should the war end.

Last week, Collins indicated New Zealand had not been asked to join the 'coalition of the willing'. Since then, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has taken part in a call with other leaders of the coalition. Speaking from India overnight - where he announced the start of a comprehensive free trade negotiation - Luxon said New Zealand still hadn't had any "specific asks from us at this point in time, so it's all very premature". He said it was an opportunity to get an update on the different lines of diplomatic effort in ensuring a ceasefire.

He did, however, have some words for Russia.

"At any point in time, Russia can stop this war, and that would be our first request and port of call is that they can stop what is an immoral and illegal war today. That is very much the case."

Luxon said the "ball is now in the court of Russia" when it came to the potential ceasefire agreement currently on the table. As it stands, New Zealand is not part of the 'coalition of the willing' said Luxon, and a Cabinet decision would need to be made before the country joined.

"There is no peace plan today, and until there is one, there's no ask on us. And again, that's something we take back to our Cabinet."

The Pacific

Later on Monday, Peters will meet with the acting head of US Agency for International Development (USAID), Peter Marocco, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.

The inward shifting focus of the US also means the potential shift away of building and securing ties in the Indo-Pacific - where China has been growing its influence. It follows the Cook Islands securing agreements directly with China, without consulting New Zealand.

The Trump administration has eliminated 83 percent of programmes run by USAID. There are some concerns this could leave a gap which China will fill.

The Lowry Institute, which reports that "over the past decade, the United States has ranked as the fifth-largest bilateral donor to the Pacific, after Australia, China, Japan, and New Zealand, contributing more than $2 billion", assesses that the "US aid freeze won't break the Pacific, but it will create unnecessary disruptions".

New Zealand and Australia can increase aid, but if they do not, Pacific nations may look to China to fill any gaps.

Furthermore, the long-term impact of Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, alongside estimates that under the Trump administration, US greenhouse gas emissions levels will rise 36 percent higher than the previous US policy by 2035, may be strongly felt in the Pacific. More aid money will have been needed in the region, even before the USAID freeze.

Peters will look to understand exactly what the US withdrawal from the Pacific means, and what is required by New Zealand and Australia, and others, to fill that gap.

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