Ratings of government performance hit new low - Ipsos survey

New Zealanders have given the government a rating of 4.2 out of 10 in the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey, the lowest on record since it started measuring in mid-2017.

Falling concern about cost of living/inflation - down five percentage points to 50 percent, the lowest in three years - appears not to have done enough to buoy government popularity.

The Ipsos New Zealand survey released to RNZ was carried out between 24 February and 2 March, and asked 1002 New Zealanders what they thought were the top three most important issues facing the country today.

Health is still the second-biggest concern - its rating unchanged at 41 percent, despite an increase in concern among older New Zealanders.

Crime has dropped from 3rd (27 percent) to 5th (25 percent), overtaken by the economy (30 percent) and housing (27 percent).

Government rating hits new low

New Zealanders' average rating of the government's performance in the previous six months - a measure the survey has been assessing since mid-2017 - saw a statistically significant drop from 4.7 out of 10 in October last year to 4.2.

Some 41 percent of people surveyed gave a rating of 3 or less out of 10.

The previous lowest rating was 4.5 in August 2023, just ahead of the October election that saw Labour turfed out of government.

National is still seen as the party best able to manage inflation, the economy and crime - although its lead over Labour has continued to shrink on all three measures.

On the top concern, inflation, 32 percent of people felt National was best able to tackle the issue, down from 35 percent in October. Labour's rating also fell, but by less - from 30 percent to 28 percent.

On the economy, National fell from 40 percent to 36 percent, Labour holding steady at 29 percent, while on crime National fell from 39 percent to 36 percent, with Labour also dropping from 23 percent to 22 percent.

Labour retained pole position on health - steady at 36 percent, while National's rating fell from 27 to 23 percent. It also reclaimed the top spot on housing/price of housing, with 29 percent of people rating it most able compared to National's 27 percent - both down from 30 percent in October.

Labour also improved its position on all the 15 remaining top-20 issues. The party was rated highest on nine of them (poverty/inequality, unemployment, education, transport/public transport/infrastructure, drug/alcohol abuse, race relations/racism, household debt/personal debt, immigration, population/overpopulation) and equal with National on petrol prices/fuel.

National was rated best on taxation and defence/foreign affairs, the Greens rated best on climate change and the environment, and Te Pāti Māori rated best on issues facing Māori.

Inflation concern continues downward trend

Inflation/cost of living dropped from 55 percent in the October survey to 50 percent, a statistically significant fall that continues a downward trend. It compares to the rating across the Tasman, where 64 percent of Australians said it was among their top concerns.

The last time inflation was rated this low in New Zealand was the October 2021 survey, on 31 percent.

It has remained the top concern for New Zealanders since it surged in the following February 2022 survey to 53 percent - overtaking housing and health.

It reached a peak of 65 percent a year later in February 2023, but has been in steady decline since - barring a minor increase between February and May last year.

The Reserve Bank has continued cutting the official cash rate - the latest shift in February a 50 basis point cut from 4.25 to 3.75 - taking pressure off as price inflation slowed, the consumer price index falling to 2.2 percent, within the target band, in September.

Inflation was also considered a bigger concern among left-leaning voters, with 52 percent saying it was among their top three concerns compared to 48 percent for those saying they voted more on the right.

However, the economy rose 2 percentage points to 30 percent. This may be a reflection of the ignition of global trade conflicts and tariff threats in Donald Trump's second presidency.

It was even more of a concern for right-leaning voters, 44 percent of whom identified it in their top-three concerns, second-equal with healthcare. The 10 percent of voters saying no party was capable of managing the economy was an all-time high.

Other concerns

All other changes in the top five issues were within the margin of error.

Concern about health/hospitals remained the second-biggest concern, with no change in ratings by New Zealanders from October, 41 percent of those surveyed rating a top issue. This compared to the Australian rating of 27 percent.

Some 12 percent of New Zealanders surveyed said no party was capable of managing healthcare, an all-time high.

Housing has remained relatively steady as a concern since last May, hovering within two percentage points. The current rating of 27 percent is a record low, previously reached in last year's August survey. Labour overtook National as best able to manage the issue for the first time since February 2023.

Crime/law and order dropped two percentage points from 27 percent to 25 percent, continuing a downward trend from the 40 percent peak in May 2023 and dropping it into 5th place.

The other top 10 concerns were poverty/inequality which remained steady at 18 percent, climate change which fell from 17 to 15 percent, unemployment rising from 13 to 14 percent, and education which was steady at 10 percent.

Issues facing Māori, drug/alcohol abuse, petrol prices/fuel, and transport/public transport/infrastructure were all 10th equal at 8 percent. Household debt/personal debt fell from 10th at 10 percent in October, to 14th at 7 percent.

The Ipsos online poll has a sample size of 1002 people and a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. It had no external sponsors or partners, initiated and run by Ipsos "because we think it is important for businesses and organisations to understand the challenges that New Zealanders face in the context of their everyday lives".

Results were weighted by age, gender and region to reflect the wider New Zealand population. Some results may sum to 100 percent and others may show a difference higher or lower than the actual due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of "don't know" or "not stated" responses.

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